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Monday, 6 October 2014

1:50 Brighton Winning Race Tips (7th October) NEWLY REFURBISHED GENTING CASINO BRIGHTON HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-60)

A low grade class six race with fourteen runners but only two of them have done a time fast enough to register on my figures. Telegraph has been known to lead and if gaining an uncontested lead could go well but - as usual - I'll always go with proven ability. Koharu is my second top rated and can either track the leaders or be held up. Top rated is LIONHEART 20/1 but only by one spot - so it could be a tight finish. The selection is ridden by Hector Crouch [seven pound claiming apprentice] and this could make a difference. He has ridden six winners for Gary Moore. He has ridden once for this stable but without success. It's a funny old race [little confused in what to do] but at odds of 20/1 it may be worth a small speculative each-way bet.

4:40 Leicester - A slightly better class five race but even so I've only five horses that have registered on my figures. Two horses have led before: Native Falls comes out fourth on my figures. With eighteen runners it might find it difficult to get involved. Avonmore Star is the other possible leader. This one is second top rate. Top rated is TIME MEDICEAN 25/1. It's very well weighted on its best form but hasn't had conditions to suit just lately. If the going is the good [or faster] I wouldn't be surprised to see improved form, so at the odds may be worth a small speculative each-way bet.

8:35 Kempton - Twelve runners with four horses known to have led: Peace Seeker and Taquaka are joint fourth top rated, while Desert Strike is third - so this should be a fast-run race. Second best is favourite Dutch Interior, who being a three-year-old could still be open to improvement. Top ranked is ALNOOMAAS 7/1, who actually finished behind Dutch Interior when they met last time out. Luce Dace's gelding went off too fast that day and had nothing left at the finish. Richard Hughes rode it both times when victorious at Brighton. Fergus Sweeney takes the ride [Hughes being retained by Richard Hannon] and I think it will be in the frame and could hold them all off this time. 

SUMMARY: Obviously the deciding factor of whether bets are placed or not depends on good ground! In the 1:50 Brighton - I suggest a small speculative each-way bet at 20/1 on LIONHEART. 4:40 Leicester - TIME MEDICEAN 25/1 needs to be good [or faster] and worthy of a small speculative each-way bet. 8:35 Kempton - ALNOOMAAS 7/1. I expect the selection to try and lead all the way. It should make the frame. It's not the biggest each-way call but should show a small profit and hopefully it win.

* Please check what the going is if you can before you bet.

Lionheart N/A Soft ground 
Time Medicean N/A Soft ground (changed after 2:10)
Alnoomaas 10/1 4th

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