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Friday, 3 October 2014

2:05 Ascot Winning Race Tips (4th October) ALBERT BARTLETT STAKES (Registered as The Rous Stakes) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

A listed five furlong race with thirteen runners. Two horses have been known to lead: Muthmir - the 6/4 favourite - doesn't add up to me. All its runs and wins have been over further, the shortest trip being a win at five and a half furlongs last time out. It's a hold-up type so I think it could be outpaced dropping back to five furlongs. Also, its runs have all been in handicaps and the last race was a top of the range class two race. However, this is listed with some opponents running at the highest level - listed and group class. In theory, it has to improve to win this. Steps is my third top rated horse and a hold-up type. But whether it can catch the leaders is open to question. Second top rated is Milly's Gift. This daughter of Trade Fair likes to track the leaders. The two known front runners are Hay Chewed, an improving three-year-old. However, this is by far the highest class race it has contested and figures suggest not fast enough although improvement could be on the cards but something to prove. Top rated is DEMORA [10/1] is the second horse known to have led before and if this one gets to the front will be very hard to keep out of the frame and could easily hold on for the win. I'd advice a decent each way bet.

3:15 Ascot - A classy group three race and a very hard race to solve. I've got joint top ratings with two horses that both won last time out: Louis The Pious 8/1 and Royal Rock 25/1. This race is full of hidden dangers! With three-year-old Signs Of Blessing coming over from France, plus seven other three-year-olds all open to improvement so I think its best to leave the race alone. I thought I would let you know what my top ratings are but haven't got a clue what the French horse has achieved. Connections haven't brought it over just for fun! 

4:40 Newmarket -  Another listed race with twelve runners. Two horses have been known to lead: Danehill Revival, who hasn't produced any fast times and may prefer a slower surface, and Hopes N Dreams, who is my fourth top rated so I expect this one to try and go from the front and try to burn the finish out of the rest of the field. Third top rated is Artistic Jewel. This horse seems to need a flat course like Doncaster to produce its best so this course doesn't look ideal.  Second top rated is Minalisa who likes to track the leaders, which is usually the tactics employed by my top rated INDIGNANT 10/1. This horses last few races have all been in Group races so this drop down into Listed grade should be to its advantage. At the price it has to be given as an each way bet.

5:00 Ascot - Eighteen runners in this class three handicap. Three horses have been known to lead: Peterkin and Royal Mezyan, who are not in my top six rating, but the other possible leader, Zero Money, is second top rated. If it gets an uncontested lead it could be very hard to catch although I think it would prefer an easier course. Third top rated Taajub needs genuine good to firm ground to show its best form. Top rated Extrasolar 14/1 who usually likes to track the leaders and stay on strongly at the end of a race. This is an ultra competitive race with so many ifs and buts so stakes should be kept to a low level.

6:05 Redcar - A class five sprint with one third of the field: Bronze Beau, Storyline, Spring Bird, Little Eli and Majestic Manannan having tried to lead, so it could be a fast run race for the grade. Of the possible front runners the best may be Little Eli who won from the front last time out at this course when just holding Storyline. Top rated is PERFECT WORDS 10/1 who ran quite well in a class four race last time out and this drop back down in grade and keeping the seven pound claiming apprentice aboard maybe just what it needs to get back to winning ways. At the odds this horse is worth at least an each way bet.

SUMMARY: Five sprints but I'm only suggesting a investment in three races. 2:05 Ascot- DEMORA 10/1 is an each way suggestion. Firstly, I think it has win and place claims and could try to lead all the way; secondly, I think the price is value because the favourite is so short with concerns about the trip. 4:40 Newmarket - INDIGNANT 10/1 is dropped down in class and on my ratings could quite easily win. However, nothing is certain in racing so for insurance an each-way bet looks the best call. 6:05 Ripon - With five possible leaders I'm hopeful this will be a fast run race - ideal for PERFECT WORDS 10/1. Once again, at the odds it has to be an each way bet. I've given my thoughts about the 3:15 and 5:00 Ascot races but I can't get a clear picture of the race so will be leaving both of them alone. I thought I would show my ratings to prove that I don't bet in every sprint - no matter how good the class of race - just for the sake of it.

Demora 10/1 Unp N/A (soft ground)
Indignant 10/1 4th
Perfect Words 10/1 Unp

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