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Friday, 24 October 2014

3:15 Doncaster Winning Race Tips (25th October) BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE £30 FREE BET HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+)

Steps is obviously the top weight because it's the class horse in the race and was unlucky last time out. If it's up with the pace early it doesn't run its race but if held up will hope for a clear run and finish strongly. 

B Fifty Two won on good to soft going at Chester, where it led all the way but I don't think it will be able to lead here and would be surprised if it won.

Demora has led before at Musselburgh winning on soft ground and with all the rain about, if there's any bias for the high numbered stalls, then it can't do any better than stall twenty-two.

Kickboxer is an improving three-year-old and ran well when second behind Justice Day (where Steps was hampered twice when trying to catch the leaders). It has won on soft going at Leicester.

Ajjaadd was well held in the Justice Day race and I can't see a reason why it should overturn the form.

Lancelot Du Lac may prefer a sixth furlong and I'm not sure soft ground really suits.

Dungannon, strictly on form, is held by B Fifty Two on the Chester race so the 7/1 looks a bit too short for me to be interested.

Golden Steps has been placed twice on soft ground and when Marco Botti enters a three-year-old in a race like this he hasn't done it for fun and it must have some sort of chance but 8/1 is a skimpy price in a twenty-runner race.

Viva Verglas is another three-year-old who ran some good races at two but hasn't reached the same level this season. It's a bit late to find improvement now.

Confessional would have been my top rated if the going had been good or better as it's a front runner and drawn in stall one could take advantage if there's a bias to the low numbers and it did run well last time out when second behind Duke Of Firenze on soft ground.

Ballesteros is held by quite a few of these on soft going from several lines of form so doubt it can turn it around with all of them.

Peterkin has very little form on soft going and it doesn't look like he liked it when tried so maybe one of the big outsiders here.

Sleepy Sioux hadn't been running very well in this class of race and was dropped to class four to get a win it might have revitalised the horse but I think these might be too good for it again at this class.

Doc Hay may prefer the sixth furlong to show its best but the going should suit but it maybe out of its class.

Megaleka had been running in class three but dropped to class four to win last time out but I think taking on class two horses may be too much to ask.

Jamaican Bolt won here Friday and if turned out again it should be noted. I thought the six furlongs might have been too far so back in trip it has to be respected. 

Ancient Cross had been running quite poorly in this class and was dropped to class three last time out when it finished third but doubt the step up again is going to help its chances.

Counter Ridge, trained by Marco Botti, is having its third run in this country but upped in class from three to two without winning so it looks unlikely to prove fruitful.

Magical Macey is at home on the soft ground but its form this season has been quite poor and a big outsider here.

Elusitivity is only a six-year-old but its overall form seems to be on a downward spiral so not for me.

Gladiatrix has won this season but in class four not the class two as here so not for me.

SUMMARY: There are a few horses that I think have a chance and it's quite possible to dutch them and show a profit. Steps (14/1) is the class horse, Demora (16/1) likes to lead and is drawn in stall twenty-two, Kickboxer (16/1) is an improving three-year-old who will be staying on at the business end of the race, Confessional (16/1) another possible leader and drawn in stall one. If it's an advantage he could make full use of it.  Jamaican Bolt (9/1) may run again after winning on Friday and the stable must fancy its chances if taking this engagement. I thought this would be its preferred race of the two. So a small dutch bet on the five horses may be the best plan.

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