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Sunday, 12 October 2014

3:40 Goodwood Winning Race Tips (12th October) SISTEMA STAKES (Handicap) (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95)

A class three race with eleven runners over the minimum five furlongs. Khubala is usually held up but that tactic probably won't work here as I think it needs the sixth furlong to show its best. Humidor can either be held up or track the leaders. Its best time came at Doncaster but it has won at this course. Whether it can reproduce its best here I'm not sure. Normal Equalibrium can also be held up or track the leaders and its best time was recorded at Ripon so I think it should be okay at this course and is my third top rated so has place claims and is available at 14/1. Duke Of Firenze is usually a hold up horse and performed best at Windsor and is my joint fourth top rated so may not reach the leaders in time. Deeds Not Words can be held up or track the leaders and this course shouldn't cause any problems but it isn't in my top five. Lexis Hero usually tracks the leaders and its best time was at Haydock but has also won at Chester so the course should be okay but not in my top five. Desert Ace can either track the leaders or be held up but is only joint fourth on my figures so doubt it will be good enough to win but could sneak a place if others don't perform to their best. Elusivity is another that can track the leaders or be held up. Its best time was at Newmarket but still not enough to be in my top five. Ladweb usually tracks the leaders and comes out second on my figures and this course shouldn't hold any fears. DOMINATE 8/1 is my top rated from a run at Ascot but this course should be okay. My figures are worked using good or firmer going but this one has won on heavy going. Also, it is the only horse in the field that has led from the start before so I'm hoping it gets an easy uncontested lead and can keep enough in reserve to repel all challengers. Pandar is usually a track-the-leaders type but may find this trip too short.

SUMMARY: All my selections are given with the proviso of good or firmer going so I'm just hoping the ground is okay (looks unlikely) and if it is I think DOMINATE 8/1 will try to lead all the way and at the price is just about worth an each-way bet for insurance.

Dominate N/A soft ground so no bet

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