Wednesday, 29 October 2014

5:30 Kempton Winning Race Tips (30th October) £25 FREE BET AT BETVICTOR.COM HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95)

Pipers Note is either held up or can track the leaders. I thought it might be a hidden danger but it is one of the outsiders so unless there's significant money for It I doubt it's going to improve here.

Fairway To Heaven likes to be held up and has run well here over seven furlongs but the time that day was slow so not for me.

Steventon Star can be held up or track the leaders and being a three-year-old it could be open to some improvement but the odds says not.

Mission Approved likes to track the leaders and is third top on my figures so must at least have place claims.

Marmalady also likes to track the leaders and comes out second on my times so has at least place chances.

Secondo hasn't run on the all-weather before and its times on good to firm going are slow so I doubt it will be good enough unless the surface brings about some good level of improvement.

Zero Money it has been out of form in its last few runs. It has produced a fast time on good to firm going on the grass but its only run on the all-weather was here over seven furlongs where it stayed on at the finish and its breeding also suggests it would like a longer distance.

Counter Ridge hasn't run before on the all-weather, in fact it has only run twice in this country and its last run wasn't a bad effort when second at Doncaster so could be a danger.

Money Team may find this trip a bit too far so I doubt It will figure here but if there's not a fast early pace it may be about at the finish.

ZHIGGY'S STARDUST 16/1 is my top rated and its the only horse in the field that has been known to lead before. If it gets its own way in front could set a pace that allows it to keep something in reserve to repel all challengers. It's from a very good stable but it hasn't run for just over four hundred days. However, Henry Candy could have this fit enough to do itself justice.

Links Drive Lady is my fourth top rated but a few spots behind the closely rated second and third best but does like to track the leaders but I doubt it can win although a place is possible.

Steelriver may not really be a sprinter and prefer a longer trip so will need to be up with the pace from the off to have any chance.

SUMMARY: It's a tricky race with a few possible hidden dangers plus the selection has to overcome a fairly long layoff and I think that's reflected in the price as its won three of its last four races and those wins were all here, so don't go mad but I suggest an each-way bet on ZHIGGY'S STARDUST 16/1.

Zhiggy's Stardust 20/1 Unp