ERIC'S RECENT WINNERS: + SECRET TIPS:DIZZY G 11/2, CENT FLYING 6/1, ROAYL BIRTH 8/1, CARLOVIAN 12/1, LETHAL ANGEL 3/1 + EX £15.20, ARCHIMEDES 7/1, BASHIBA 15/2, DESERT FOX 9/2, MERRY BANTER 5/1 + FC 34.07, ARCHIMEDES 15/2, GREEN POWER 4/1, BIG TIME MAYBE 13/8, SWEET PURSUIT 11/1, CENT FLYING 8/1 + EX £39, ENTHAAR 9/2 + CSF £20.63, INGELBY MOLLY 25/1, MOVE IN TIME 13/2, MR ORANGE 8/1, DARING GUEST 15/2, BATTASH 1/4, HAMSHON 5/2, DANDY'S BEANO 6/4 + ex £3, TEXTING 3/1 + EX £18.40,BOUDICA BAY 9/2, GRANDFATHER TOM 11/2, MOUNTAIN PEAK 6/1, NINJAGO 4/1, TARNHELM 13/2, ONLY SPOOFING 7/2, STAXTON 15/2, DAPPER MAN 4/1, CUPPACOCO 10/1, TROPICS 41, JORDAN ELECTRICS 5/1 + EX £32.40, BLUE POINT 5/2, LORD RIDDIFORD 7/1,GLOBAL SPIRIT 4/1, LIAMBA 7/2, MACHREE 14/1, BILLYOAKES 4/1, FIRMDECISIONS 18/1, ROY'S DREAM 8/1, EAST STREET REVUE 25/1, RED STRIPES 5/1, MAB'S CROSS 6/1, RED INVADER 5/1, SAMOVER 9/1, HIGHLY SPRUNG 4/1,SHAMSHON 4/1, KATHEEFA 7/2, STAR CRACKER 13/2, WALK ON WALTER 2/1,THE ARMED MAN 9/1, KACHY 8/13, TERENTUM STAR 9/1, MYSTICAL MOON 14/1, OUR PLACE IN LOULE 5/1,GOWANBUTER 4/1, SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE 3/1, WARRIOR VALEEY 5/1, TAVENER 8/1, CROSSE FIRE 5/1, PEACHEY CARNEHAN 16/1, TATHMEEN 12/1 + EX £110.40, POINT ZERO 7/2, MERHOOB 10/1, SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE 6/1, EQUIANO SPRINGS 6/1, IT'S ALL A JOKE 4/1 + EX £20.40, EPEIUS 9/2, AGEUROOO 4/1, JOEGOGO 3/1, SANDFRANKSKIPSGO 15/2 + EX £42.20, GORGEOUS NOORA 5/2, DANDY HIGHWAYMAN 11/1, ANOTHER ANGEL 5/1, SANTAFIORA 6/1, ALASKAN BAY 6/1 + EX £11.80 + TRI £83.70, DOCTOR SARDONICUS 15/2 + EX £55.30, TURANGA LEELA 9/1, CUBAN PRINCE 9/1, THE RIGHT CHOICE 5/1, POPPY MAY 12/1, COMMANDER KIRKUP 5/1 + EX £15.50 + TRI £55.90, CAPTAIN LARS 6/1, WALK ON WALTER 9/2, OUTRAGE 8/1, ARZAAK 14/1, DEEDS NOT WORDS 3/1 + EX £20.30 + TRIFECTA £53.70, PIAZON 8/1, THE LACEMAKER 100/30 + WALK ON WALTER 16/1 + £43.75 F/C


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Tuesday, 21 October 2014

Distance In Time by Eric Winner

There is no sprint racing tomorrow so this blog shows some of the thoughts behind my own unique speed figures. The major problem become apparent when comparing one course against another. The official figures use Median times, which are in my opinion are a very poor inadequate way to measure the performance of a horse. A quick example: let's assume the Median figure at Ascot equates to a horse rated 90 if a horse rated 70 runs there it would say the going was slow by 0.2 seconds per furlong. However, if a horse rated 110 ran there it would say the going was 0.2 fast! Obvious this doesn't work properly. The charts (detailed below) give an indication of how much difference 0.2 seconds per furlong means in terms of yards or lengths observed by a winning distance. I could show you all figures for every course but I'll show those that are classed as undulating and sharp tracks. Other courses are categorised: undulating and galloping, flat and galloping: 

Epsom 20.52
Chepstow 19.65
Goodwood 19.64
Brighton 19.55
Thirsk 19.33
Catterick 19.26
Musselburgh 19.20 
Ripon 19.10
Hamilton 19.03
Chester 18.85
Windsor 18.85
Carlisle 18.71
Bath 18.55
Beverley 18.30
Pontefract 18.00

The figure beside each race course is the number of yards a horse covers at that course in one second over five furlongs. 

Yes, it does seem incredible but let's just say a horse can run five furlongs in sixty-seconds all you have to do is divide 1100 yards by 60 seconds and it reveals 18.33 yards. I have used the differing times from each track to come up with an accurate figure for each course. I won't divulge where my starting point was for each course but can assure you it was not the Median time. 

So now if the going is quoted as 0.2 seconds per-furlong slow at Epsom over five-furlongs it means it was a whole second slow over the whole race which equates to 20.52 yards. While if it was the same at Pontefract the difference would have been 18.00 yards. This difference doesn't look much but when you put it into terms of racing it's nearly 1 length, which is quite a distance in terms of a five-furlong sprint.

I hope this gives you some idea how important it is to get a better method of working out going allowances and why I only usually bet on good or firmer ground where I can ignore going allowances.