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Tuesday, 18 November 2014

2:00 lingfield Winning Race Tips (19th November) UNIBET HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95)

Barracuda Boy, who usually tracks the lead, hasn't run at this course before but its Kempton times detail it's my third best. 

Fairway To Heaven has only produced a slowish time at Kempton and I think it might go better at Southwell with its slower surface. 

Compton Park ran better than it first looks when sixth last time out in a fast run race at Wolverhampton. A reproduction of that form would give it chances of making the frame.

AMADEUS WOLFE TONE 6/1 is top rated and can either track the pace or be held up, which it will employ here I'm not quite sure. It won two runs ago in a fairly fast time and was beaten under two lengths in an even faster time last time out. If it achieves either of those times again it has a very good chance.

Golden Amber is one of a trio of three-year-olds. It has produced its best time here at Lingfield but it's only good enough for fourth top and another that usually tracks the early pace.

Baddilini can be held up or track the pace but its best time from Kempton puts it seventh on my figures. 

Elusivity hasn't produced a time good enough for my top seven and is usually held up. 

Zero Money hasn't produced a time to enter my top seven and its not been in form recently so it's not for me. 

Major Jack is a three-year-old that achieved a good enough time at Kempton to put it into sixth on my ratings. It is priced as favourite for this race and could improve being a youngster. It is the only horse known to lead and any horse that gains an uncontested lead can also improve so it could do better than the bare figures suggest and better that original rating. 

Expose has recorded a good time at this course but over five-furlongs. Additionally, it recorded a time at Kempton over six furlongs which makes it second on my ratings. 

Dangerous Age is fifth on my six-furlong figures but it appears that the sixth furlong isn't in its best interest. 

Diamond Lady is the third three-year-old but hasn't shown enough to enter my figures but it could be a hidden danger as it has recorded a good time on good-to-firm going on grass and has only had two runs on the all-weather which were the first two runs of its career.

SUMMARY: If the favourite Major Jack gets its own way at the front of the field it could be a worthy favourite but I'll always side with what's proven against what might happen. AMADEUS WOLFE TONE 6/1 is top rated and Jamie Osborne has a respectable thirteen percent win rate at this course. Adam Kirby has ridden eight winners from forty rides on older horse and showing a good level stakes profit. The stable has only had one older runner this month so far but in September and October he sent out nine runners with four of them winning so the stable seems to be in good form.

Amadeus Wolfe Tone 6/1 Unp

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