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Sunday, 28 December 2014

3:40 Southwell Winning Race Tips (29th December) DAILY PRICE BOOSTS AT UNIBET HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75)

This meeting has been abandoned.

1> Indian Tinker finished second the time before last - over course and distance. That place effort looked good but the time was very slow. Next start, in a faster run race, it wasn't competitive. I can't see this being a slow-run race so I doubt it will win. 

2> Thorpe Bay has been quite consistent of lately but its times don't make it in my top five. It likes to track the leaders but these might go too fast for it to be able to stay in contention so it's not for me. 

3> Pensax Lad is a course and distance winner from December last year but that time was very slow. It had a summer break, and has had two runs since then, but neither run has been very good when you look a bit deeper. I doubt it will feature here. 

4> Rambo Will is a possible front runner and its times make it fourth best on my figures, so it must have an each-way chance but may find one or two too good.

5> Monarch Maid hasn't achieved any form over this course and distance. It likes to lead or track the leaders but there's nothing to make me think it will improve dramatically for a switch to this surface.

6> Six Wives hasn't been in very good form of late, including runs here. It is my third top rated at its best but it needs a sudden resurgence of form to figure.

7> Shawkantango usually prefers to sit just behind the early pace-setters and is my top rated. It gave an indication of returning to form when third over this course and distance when ridden for the first time by Patrick Mathers. He keeps the ride.

8> Oscars Journey likes to track the leaders but its times don't make it in my top five. It won last time out at Nottingham on soft ground but that was in the middle of October so may need the run.

9> Bapak Bangsawan is the third possible leader and comes out second on my figures, which is why I think this will be a fast-run race. I wouldn't want to see this horse gaining an easy, uncontested lead - it would be very, very hard to catch. 

10> Sir Geoffrey is the fourth and final possible leader but its been so badly out of form it would need a miracle transformation. As it gets older, it gets harder to find its form. 

11> Simply Black is another horse which likes to track the leaders and is fifth on my figures. It would need others to under perform for it to make the frame but it must have some chance. 

12> Rylee Mooch has recently only returned slow times over this course and distance. It hasn't won here in six attempts so doubt it will feature. 

SUMMARY: With four possible front runners, and that includes my second and fourth top rated, it should be a fast-run affair. SHAWKANTANGO (7/1) needs to show its best form so I'm hoping it gets a nice position from stall six, then comes home the strongest as the early-paced horses come to the end of their stamina. There is a sprint at 3:10 with seven of the nine runners being three year olds and little data to form a picture. However, one of the runners has recorded a time to register on my figures so I'm leaving this very poor class race well alone.


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