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Monday, 5 January 2015

2:20 Southwell Winning Race Tips (6th January) LADBROKES HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-75)

There are no sprints today so I'm appraising this seven-furlong race, which is the next best thing. It should be workable from a speed point of view.

1> Red Primo is sixth on my figures and on form shouldn't be able to beat Kung Hei Fat Choy. Tony Coyle's gelding likes to track the leaders but may not be able to go with the faster horses here. 

2> Sakash is seventh top rated of the eight runners and I've a feeling this one also may not be capable of going the early pace and doubt it will make the frame. 

3> Kung Hei Fat Choy comes out first or second on my ratings depending on whether you count the allowance the apprentice. I'm inclined to favour another horse and make this my second top figure. It should be staying on well at the finish.

4> Best Tamayuz comes out fourth or fifth on my ratings because its being ridden by an apprentice and it has shown mixed form with the selection and both of them have been known to lead before. 

5> Burnhope is a possible front-runner. If it get to the front, especially early on, it would then be very hard to catch. The apprentice has had two previous rides for the stable and enjoyed one victory. 

6> Be Royale is third on my figures and can track the leaders or be held up. I think it might have to be held up today and hope they go too fast up front playing into its hands but I doubt that all of the three possible front runners will fade but this one could have place claims. 

7> Illustrious Prince comes out bottom on my figures and it usually tracks the leaders but I think these will go too fast for it and if it tries to stay with them may fade quite early in the race. 

8> Madame Mirasol comes out fourth or fifth on my figures and is the third possible front runner but going by its times it may not be able to stay the other two front runners and therefore may struggle to get a place against these today. 

SUMMARY: As I said, this isn't quite a sprint, it's seven furlongs and I only put it through my process to see if I could find a bet. I think the race looks between three horses: Kung Hei Fat Choy, who is the 9/4 favourite, Best Tamayuz, second favourite at 3/1, but I think the value bet is BURNHOPE 14/1, it would only be given as a very small each-way bet and I do think it has a good a chance of the three at both running well and maybe even winning the race.

Burnhope 14/1 4th