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Wednesday, 4 February 2015

6:40 Chelmsford Winning Race Tips (5th February) TOTEEXACTA PICK THE 1-2 HANDICAP

A twelve runner class six race. Only half of this field have achieved a time to register on my figures, which shows it is a poor race, so stakes are already at a minimum. Soul Instinct is sixth top rated and is a versatile horse with its running style but is naught from ten on the all-weather. Nelson's Pride is another possible leader, but hes naught from eight on the all-weather and not in my top six. Steel City Boy and Waterloo Dock are two other possible leaders and they are fourth and third rated, I have joint top ratings: Littlecote Lady who has been thereabouts in a few races recently but without looking likely to win so I'm siding with LITTLE CHOOSEY 9/2. This mare has a good five-pound claimer on board and decent draw in stall four. It's ideal for a hold-up horse and hopefully will get a good early position and stay on the strongest. 

7:10 Chelmsford - Only seven runners and virtually impossible to work out. The main problem being the old adage of class versus speed. The bottom weights have the best speed figures but may not be good enough in this higher class of race, plus there's only Royal Bajan who has been known to lead before. When a horse achieves an easy, uncontested, lead it can improve by quite a few spots. However, he's now a seven-year-old so maybe too old to improve much, if any, but could dictate the pace and have enough left to repel the opposition. Conversely, the top weighted Smoothtalkinrascal, who is dropped in class here, hasn't been in form lately and having its first run on the all-weather. At Lingfield, last time out,  it didn't show much promise. Long Awaited recorded a very fast time over this distance on good-to-firm going at Nottingham, which put this one firmly in the picture. Secret Asset did a fast time over six-furlongs but can it go just as well back at five. I think that paints the picture of this race quite nicely. There are just too many ifs and buts to come to a firm conclusion and time-wise you can make three top rated using differing distances and courses. I'm leaving this race well alone.

SUMMARY: 6:40 Chelmsford - It's not a great price but a winners a winner. LITTLE CHOOSEY 9/2 has the joint best time and well drawn in stall four to get a good early position. If it gets a clear run it could stay on to take the spoils.The negative, it is a poor race with poor horses and consistency isn't a word associated with any of these horses so keep stakes to a low level.

Photo: Malart

Little Choosey 5/1 Unp

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