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Thursday, 30 April 2015

2:55 Musselburgh Winning Race Tips (1st May) WEATHERBYS PRIVATE BANKING HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-80)

A class four race with eight runners with two possible known front runners, Soul Brother has led before but its time hasn't been good enough to win this, my third top rated is Noodles Blue Boy who is being ridden by a seven pound claiming apprentice who has ridden four times for this yard without success and also the stable hasn't been in the best of form so im ignoring the claim and leaving it as third top, second top is Singeur who can be held up or track the leaders and should have place claims, my top rated is TOM SAWYER 16/1 who is also my second horse that's been known to lead before and if it gets to the front here will be hard to catch but whenever the price permits I always advise doing them each way as a bit of insurance. 

3:15 Chepstow - Eleven runners with four of them having been known to lead before my top three are all possible front runners so I just have to hope they don't go off too fast and cut each others throats and leave it for a finishing type, third top is the bottom weight Haadeeth who would only probably lead if nothing else wanted to so doubt that will be its tactics here, second top rated is Threave who's best time came at Salisbury but top rated is SWENDAB 25/1 who did its best time at the class one course of Newbury and the stable statistics show nothing negative so I'm hoping for a big run from this one and if it gets to the front could be another that will be hard to beat and at the price I have to give it as an each way bet. 

4:45 Lingfield - Six runners without a known front runner so it could possibly be a tactical affair but I'm pretty sure something will have decided they are going to have a go from the front but it could be that more than one stable thinks they could pinch an uncontested lead, which will throw all my work out the window, both Rufford and Shamahan could be possible hidden dangers but my second top rated is Top Offer who might find this trip too short and if they go a slow early pace this one could be outpaced when the sprint for the line but if its a fast pace it will be staying on at the finish, top rated is PERFECT PASTIME 5/1 who normally likes to track the leaders and it does have quite a few spots in hand over these and then there's the jockey booking of Dane O'Neill who has ridden three winners from eleven rides for this stables older horses, so it points to it running a big race here. 

5:15 Lingfiled - Ten runners with half the field having been known to lead before and just like an earlier race my top three rated are also possible front runners and as long as they don't go too fast early on then most of these wont be seen with much of a chance, Desert Strike drawn in stall eight is my third top and this one can lead but only usually when nothing else wants to set a fast pace and from its draw I doubt it will try to lead, second top is Royal Aquisition drawn in stall nine is well berthed for trying to lead but it must have a chance of making the frame if it gets a clear run early on, my top rated is the bottom weighted PUCON 10/1 who is drawn in stall two so could get in front on the rails which is where you want to be as a front runner, the stable has only sent out sixteen runners this year so far and no winners plus the jockey has ridden five times without a win, its not ideal statistics but there's not been enough data to be confident to say whether it will or not its primed to run well here but it has a chance being the top rated so I'm saying have a small bet each way and I do mean small. 

5:45 Lingfield - Back to six runners here but five of them are more or less confirmed front runners so quite hard to solve, Sir Geoffrey has no recent form over this course and distance but its best time from 2012 wouldn't be good enough for this race so I'm going to discard it from my idea of the winner, Lujeanie is my second top rated whilst Danzoe starts off as third favourite but if you take off the apprentices allowance it becomes joint top rated with Lujeanie but the top spot goes to MOSSGO 11/4 but its a strange race and stakes should be kept low.

Tom Sawyer 16/1 Unp
Swendab 25/1 Unp
Perfect Pastime 5/1 4th
Pucon 12/1 6th
Mossgo 11/4 1st

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