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Wednesday, 15 April 2015

3:30 Newmarket Winning Race Tips (16th April) CONNAUGHT ACCESS FLOORING ABERNANT STAKES (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

This is a Group Three class race over six furlongs and with fourteen runners has the makings of a very nice sprint race. There's four horses in the race that have been known to lead before and of these four I have Music Master marked down in third spot on my figures so if this one runs to its form its where I will start my workings and if this one gets an uncontested lead it could improve a little so ought to make the places, I've got two horses rated joint top they are JACK DEXTER 14/1 and RIVELLINO 25/1, both have had recent runs so both should be fit to do themselves justice. The trainer of Jack Dexter has had thirty one runners at this course without having a winner, that alone wouldn't put me off but the stable have sent out thirteen runners since March 1st without a winner so the two statistics together put me off, RIVELLINO's trainer hasn't been the most successful here but he has had one winner from fourteen attempts and they have had four winners this month already and the price permits it to be given as an each way selection. 

7:50 Chelmsford -Ten runners in a class four race but there's quite a few of these that haven't run on this course before so the data is a bit limited but the bottom weighted SPELLMAKER 7/1 comes out on top but with no confirmed front runner in the field I'm hoping the jockey takes it straight to the front from its ideal draw in stall one then sets a sensible pace and keep enough in reserve to repel the challengers near the finish but due to the lack of data stakes should be kept low. 

8:50 Chelmsford - Only six runners in this race and most of them have been in good form lately so could be a decent race, my top rated is THE DANDY YANK 12/1 who though not ideally drawn in stall six for a front runner but it looks like the most likely horse to lead and if doing so will be very hard to catch its a shame there's not enough runners for three each way places so I'm suggesting a small win bet at the odds and I would expect it to be a shorter price so take the 9/1 on offer. I've these two races at Ripon last on the list because once again I'm not sure exactly what the going is going to be, one paper says good to soft and the other has it down as good, so I'm not sure but I would rather err on the side of caution every time just like the Beverley meeting today, the official going was given as good but the times tell a truer story and the 3.05 race was way way below what would be expected for its class three rating and also there is a big draw bias at Beverley and I actually forgot they had changed the way they number the stalls and now its a low draw that's vital and the first three home today were drawn in stalls 2-3-1, which proves the point. 

2:30 Ripon - Eleven runners in a class four race over six furlongs, I've got one horse, Dutch Breeze that could lead if nothing else wants to but it is quite versatile with its racing tactics, and I've got Soul Brother marked down as a horse that likes to lead or at least be very close to the front from the start but neither are in my top three ratings, Vallasta is third top, Bop It second top and top spot goes to MISSISSIPPI 10/1 and this comes from a stable where the statistics look quite positive but it is its first run for over two hundred days so stakes should be kept low but it will be interesting if there's money for it but at the early price I would be doing it each way. 

4:15 Ripon - This is an apprentices race so straight away I'm treading carefully and stakes will be kept to the low side but I am going to mention my top rated, its from a decent stable, Tim Easterby's, and the apprentice, Rachel Richardson has ridden thirteen winners for the yard so that's a plus in this type of race. The horse, GRAN CANARIA QUEEN 12/1 is drawn in stall one which is ideal for a front running horse so it can either get to the rails or have a clear run down the outside of the field depending where they position the stalls and at the price would have be an each way bet.

Mississippi 10/1 3rd (touched odds-on in-running)
Jack Dexter 14/1 4th
Rivellino 25/1 Unp
Gran Canaria Queen 12/1 Unp
Spellmaker 8/1 3rd
The Dandy Yank 12/1 Unp

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