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Thursday, 16 April 2015

3:55 Newbury Winning Race Tips (17th April) DUBAI DUTY FREE HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-110)

1—Steps is usually a hold up type of horse and with two possible front runners would most likely do the same her but is only joint third on my figures from its fastest run at Ascot.    

2—Lucky Beggar is another hold up type and may prefer a bit more cut in the going to show its best and is my lowest speed rating. 

3—Robot Boy is another who did its best time at Ascot from its usual style of tracking the leaders and it was good enough to put it second on my figures and has had a recent run to attain fitness. 

4—Noble Storm is usually deployed just behind the early paced horses and stays on strongly at the finish, it does have an absence to overcome but it is my top rated but not by much. 

5—Boom The Groom has been running quite well on the all weather this winter so shouldn't lack fitness but hasn't any form at this distance on good or better ground over five furlongs but with it being a possible leader it could be a bit of a hidden danger. 

6—Green Door is the other horse in the race that has been known to lead before and this one is the other joint third top rated so the early pace should be quite adequate for the hold up types to chase down. 

7—Normal Equilibrium is my fifth top rated but only one pound behind the joint third top rated and can either be held up or track the leaders but may just be wanting a bit extra to win here. 

SUMMARY Quite a nice race and to be honest it looks a quite open affair but I'm sticking with my top rated, NOBLE STORM 28/1 and I'm a little surprised to see it this big in price so I have to give it as an each way bet, either its the difference between my ratings and their ratings or I'm missing something completely but it does need firmer ground to be at its best and the Sporting Life says its good with good to firm in places on the straight which is where this is run. 

6:10 Bath - This is five furlong listed race with ten runners, half are older horses and the other half three year olds who get ten pounds from their elders, there is a saying that says you shouldn't back three year olds against their elders till at least June so if that's true then the top rated is Demora who recorded its best time at Haydock but when you look at the younger horses Newsletter comes out top of these and from its best time, recorded at Ascot this horse becomes the top rated, so hopefully the prices will allow it to be that you can back both DEMORA 5/2 and NEWSLETTER 4/1 and make a profit whichever one wins, the prices isn't great but I think it proves that I'm on the right lines especially as I am not very confident with the weight for age allowance races.

Noble Storm 28/1 Unp
Newsletter 4/1 3rd
Demora 5/2 5th

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