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Wednesday, 20 May 2015

2:20 Ayr Winning Race Tips (21st May) BACARDI CARTA ORO HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-65)

Eleven runners over five furlongs but a lowly class six race and only two horses have recorded figures on my charts at this distance, there's four possible leaders but three of them, Chookie's Lass (who could be a hidden danger as its only a four year old so could improve), Dream Sika and Fathom Five aren't in my top two, second top is Rock Canyon who doesn't want it too firm and is usually held up but my top rated is the fourth possible leader and if ROY'S LEGACY 7/1 does get to the front it will be hard for these to pass but as usual please check the going before betting. 

2:50 Ayr - An eight runner race of class five and quite a poor race but there could be a couple of possible improvers in Native Falls and the three year old Clever Love, there's only one horse that has been known to lead before and that's Jinky my second top rated, so it could have an easy lead and unless something does improve not many will get involved here but top rated is BARNEY McGREW 5/1 who won at Thirsk on soft ground last time out but just as capable on firm ground and there's nothing in the trainers statistics that would say it wont be trying to follow up its last win. 

5:35 Goodwood - A class five apprentice race with nine runners. Lead A Merry Dance 2/1 is my fourth top rated and could lead if nothing else wants to but maybe it wont need to as the bottom weight Satchville Flyer is more of a natural front runners and I've marked it down as a bit of a hidden danger and this just could be the race where it strikes from the front and holds on, third top is Kuala Queen , I've got joint top rated but Mount Hollow 33/1 is only got a three pound claiming jockey on board while Perfect Pastime 10/1 has got a seven pound claimer aboard, there's no plus or minuses I can find about either apprentice, so I'm narrowing the race down to three possibilities with the most likely leader and the two joint top rated horses and maybe doing all three to show a profit whichever wins 

6:40 Nottingham - Twelve runners with four horses that have been known to lead before, there's two hidden dangers in Findhorn Magic and State Of The Union who both could try to set the pace, fourth top rated is Vodka Chaser and third top is Invincible Lad, originally I had two joint top rated with Royal Bajan who usually likes to track the leaders the other top rated is Lexington Place who has been known to lead before but usually only if nothing else wants to lead. Overall its a very hard race to be very confident about anything in the race, I've mentioned six of the field and the winner I think is most likely to be within those seven but I cant be anymore precise, so maybe best to leave the race alone. 

7:15 Nottingham - Fourteen runners this time and not a bad class four race, there's three horses that have led before, Armelle who is not in my top six, Cosmic Chatter my fourth top rated and Syrian Pearl my second top rated, so it could be a fast run race, my third top is the three year old Patrick who could have some improvement still to come so cant be discarded easily, but top spot goes to *DAYLIGHT 33/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and I'm hoping it can either get a good early position or get a clear run if its held up and then stay on the stronger to at least get a place and at the price has to be given as an each way bet. 

SUMMARY:  The going is given as good at Goodwood and good. At Ayr the going is described as good to soft. Nottingham it is described as good to soft (good in places). Some places around the country are drying out while others are having showers, so its hard to say how this will affect the ground conditions by the time racing starts. Please make as sure you appreciate the going before placing a bet. Also, some of the prices offered on some of my selections are bigger than they would be if the going was good or firmer so if it does dry out you would be getting a good degree of value.

Roy's Legacy 7/1 3rd No bet - Soft ground 
Barney McGrew 15/2 2nd - No bet - Soft ground
Lead A Merry Dance 2/1 1st 
Mount Hollow 40/1 Unp
Perfect Pastime 10/1 Unp 
*Daylight 33/1 NR

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