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Tuesday, 19 May 2015

9:10 Kempton Winning Race Tips (20th May) ILNSURE365 HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-65)

A lowly class six race over six furlongs with three horses that have been known to lead before. Speed The Plough and Satchville Flyer have led but their times are quite slow and not in my top five ratings. However, I have a feeling the latter may have some improvement still to come and it will happen in a race where it's allowed an easy uncontested lead which I don't think will happen here but never say never. Third top rated is Jay Bee Blue who can either be held up or track the leaders which is the same running style of Compton Prince who is my second top rated but my top rating goes to GHOST TRAIN 6/1 who is also the third possible front runner and if this one gets to the front it will be hard for the rest to catch it, it was held up last time out and came late to take second at Lingfield. I'm hoping it can keep a little closer to the front runners here and then stay on the stronger. 

4:50 Ayr - A class three race with eight runners but the problem is that there's no natural front runner which makes it hard to get an idea of how the race might pan out, 

1 — Long Awaited has been unlucky a couple of times recently when finishing fast but too late but it is my second top rated so with a clear run should make the frame. 

2 — Pearl Acclaim may find this trip too short and last on my books. 

3 — Master Bond my fourth top rated who usually tracks the leaders but may prefer a stiffer course. 

4 — Classy Anne may prefer some cut in the going and only seventh on my list.

5 — Orient Class is my top rated and its time was recorded at this course and distance and it usual likes to track the leaders. 

6 — Bunce may need further to show its best so should be staying on at the finish and my fifth top. 

7 — Jinky is sixth on my figures and can be held up or track the leaders.

8 — Go Go Green is third on my list but my prefer a bit of cut in the ground to show its best. 

ORIENT CLASS (14/1) is top rated and despite being no known front runners I'm still putting it forward. Paul Midgley's charge has a few spots in hand and could win easily if replicating its best time. Once again, we are relying on the going being good or firmer, which looks very doubtful. However, I'll leave my analysis for scrutiny just in case the ground is okay. You should watch the earlier races to make your own mind up. It isn't wise to take note of racing paper or even television channels. For example, the first race at Newcastle on Tuesday was given as good to firm before the first race but changed to good to soft before the second contest. Taking the word of officials can cost punters dear. Unfortunately there seems little regard for accurate going descriptions. The less you know the more chance bookmakers have of winning your money. Frustrating. Rant over! 

I will mention the sprint at Ayr. It's such a poor race with not one of the field of fourteen runners achieving a time fast enough to register on my graphs so I'm leaving it well alone even if the ground is okay.

Orient Class 14/1 Unp - No bet - Soft ground 
Ghost Train 6/1 2nd

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