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Monday, 1 June 2015

5:45 Brighton Winning Race Tips (2nd June) DONATELLO RESTAURANT HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70)

1— Noverre To Go won last time out on good to soft ground over six furlongs, when the going is good or firmer this minimum trip is too short but if its on the soft side it might be okay at this trip but if its soft I wont be betting so it makes no difference. 

2— The Dandy Yank is my third top rated and usually likes to track the pace setters and if running to its best should make the frame. 

3— Whitecrest can be held up or track the leaders and comes out top on my figures and at its very best its quite a few spots ahead of these but the only downside is the lack of front runners. 

4— Beau Mistral comes out second on my figures from a time recorded at Haydock which is a flat track so whether this track will suit and it can record the same times here would have to be taken on trust but it can track the leaders or be held up.

5— Trending is a hold up or track the leaders type but its times have been too slow to make my top three. 

6— Cardinal may be better off with some cut in the ground as its times on good or better going are quite poor but is versatile in how it runs but hasn't led before so maybe not here either. 

7— Archie Stevens has had eight runs on turf without winning and when its tried this distance its times have been quite poor and may get outpaced here. 

8— Ecliptic Sunrise may prefer a longer trip so would need to be nearer the front early doors so as not to be outpaced but if its allowed to lead, as they know its stamina could come into play it could be a bit of a danger but its had twenty one runs to date and is still a maiden which doesn't bode well. 

SUMMARY If the going is good or better I think the betting prices might go in my favour as I think the top weight Noverre To Go might be under priced 11/4 favourite and cause others drift to prices bigger than they should be, which is good news for me. The biggest problem is knowing where the early pace is going to come from as we haven't got any natural front runner in the race, obviously somethings got to lead and I'm hoping they set a reasonable fast pace for the selection to aim at and the most likely candidate is Ecliptic Sunrise who is still a maiden after twenty one runs. I'm of course going with my top rated WHITECREST 9/1 from a stable who has been in form this month and this one looks primed for a big run. They are saying the going is good and good to soft in places, if that's true I obviously wont be betting and also my thoughts about the top weight being too short of a price doesn't apply as it won with cut last time out and I'm not saying it will or wont win.

Whitecrest 9/1 4th - No bet - Soft ground