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Saturday, 1 August 2015

3:15 Chester Winning Race Tips (2nd August) MBNA QUEENSFERRY STAKES (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

Not a favoured track for betting for me mainly because of the draw bias for a low draw but it is a lovely looking course, this is a very nice listed class race with five three year olds taking on more experienced horses with three possible front runners in the race, Cape Factor is the best drawn in stall two of the front running type but it might prefer a slower surface so it might not be fast enough to lead here especially with my third top rated, Roudee drawn in stall three, my second top rated is Eastern Impact who can either track the leaders or be held up but my top spot goes to PORTAMENTO 4/1 who was my selection last time it ran where it didn't go to the front and let the pace setter that day keep something in reserve to repel this ones challenge although it did win before at Wolverhampton without leading so it can track the pace and stay on at the finish but it needs them to set a fast pace be coming back to him at the finish, so I'm going to give it another chance here despite being drawn in stall eight. 

4:15 Chepstow - A class four race with ten runners and two known possible front runners, I've got joint third top ratings with Edged Out who is my third top rated but this distance is the very limit of its stamina so I doubt it will lead or win and its not for me in this race, the other third top is the top weight Midnight Raider who usually tracks the leaders and has proven it can repeat its times but they are quite a few spots below my top rated, second top is Eastern Dragon who is usually held up and might not be able to catch the front runners, my top spot goes to the three year old ALEDAID 8/1 who is also the other possible front runner, it did prove last season that it was capable of repeating its best time but it hasn't done so this season yet, it did win first time this year at Kempton then didn't stay seven furlongs next time out then ran a decent race when third on good to firm going but was last by a long way on soft ground, so I'm hoping if the going is good or firmer it can show its best again here. 

4:45 Chepstow - Drop down to class six here with eleven runners and most of them are quite dire in form and I've got just one horse that has been known to lead, the three year old Acom so it could have some improvement still to come and if it gets an uncontested lead could show some improvement, with only two horses registered on my graphs makes Diamond Vine in second spot but this one is quite inconsistent but this is its best distance but is a few pounds behind my top rated TOP COP 9/2 and this one has been running fairly consistent with a third and two seconds in its last three runs and this race looks well with its capabilities, it usually tracks the leaders and the likely leader Acom is drawn in stall ten so the selection drawn in stall eleven could follow it to get a good early position and stay on strongest at the finish.

Portamento 4/1 4th 
Alediad 8/1 Unp
Top Cop 9/2 3rd

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