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Sunday, 27 September 2015

2:40 Bath Winning Race Tips (28th Sept) MJ CHURCH "HANDS AND HEELS" APPRENTICE SERIES HANDICAP (Part of The Racing Excellence Initiative) (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-75)

Twelve runners with just Edged Out and Deeds Not Words, my fifth top rated, as the likely leaders, I've got joint second top rated horses in the top weight Angelito who can be held up or track the leaders and its best time came at Goodwood so this course shouldn't be any problem, the other second top rated is Mamabo Spirit who has the same running style capabilities and its time from Windsor says this track should be alright for it, top spot goes to the bottom weighted HARRISON STICKLE 25/1 who is only a three year old and was staying on nicely at this distance at Windsor when recording its best time, its only had four runs so could be open to improvement and its first run when given a handicap mark can be ignored because of the soft ground. 

2:50 Hamilton - Eleven runners in a poor class six race with three known front runners and my top two are in that three and there's only three registered on my graphs, Busy Bimbo is my third top rated and Tarando is my third possible front runner but second top is Majestic Manannan from a time recorded at Pontefract so this course should suit it as well but top spot goes to IRISH GIRLS SPIRIT 7/2 who won last time out over this course and distance and is carrying a six pound penalty for that win, so it looks like they are running it again before the handicapper can re-assess its handicap but its being ridden by a seven pound claiming apprentice to negate the rise in the weights. 

3:20 Hamilton - Only seven runners in this class six claiming race and I've only got one horse that looks like a natural front runner but its had a six week break from racing so if JACOBS PILLOW 14/1 is refreshed from its rest and gets an uncontested lead could lead all the way but I've got JEBEL TARA 3/1 as joint top rated with it and this one has been in very good form lately so I think the winner ought to come from one of the two. 

3:50 Hamilton - Eight runners in a class two conditions race where Dark Emerald is the official top rated horse but I think that is a better horse over further, I've got Bambino marked as the only horse that's been known to lead but this one would need to improve quite a bit to win this, the top rated is the three year old BALLYMORE CASTLE 6/1 who recorded its best time on good to firm going at Newmarket four runs ago and its last three runs have all been over seven furlongs and I think this switch back down to six will suit it. 

5:40 Bath - Fourteen runners in another poor class six race where four horses have been known to lead before and they are my third and top rated from the only four that have recorded good enough times to register on my graphs. Third top is Burnt Cream who did its best time over ccourse and distance but in this field I doubt it can lead or will even try to lead as its quite versatile with its running style, second top is Lucky Clover who may really prefer further so should be staying on at the end of the race but it might be alittle too late to catch the top rated GOWER PRINCESS 12/1 and if this one does get to the front it ought to be very hard to catch

Harrison Stickle 25/1 1st 
Irish Girl's Spirit 7/2 6th
Jacob's Pillow 14/1 1st
Jebel Tara 3/1 Unp
Ballymore Castle 6/1 3rd
Gower Princess 12/1 Unp

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