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Monday, 2 November 2015

4:00 Redcar Winning Race Tips (3rd November) THANKS & SEE YOU NEXT SEASON HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-60)

A very poor class six race over six furlongs and I've only got three horses in the race that have recorded a time fast enough to register on my figures, so I'm going to concentrate on those three in order of my ratings starting with the third best:

IGGY—28/1 is usually either held up or tracks the leaders and I think that depends on how fast the race is run because I believe it is a better horse over a longer trip so should be staying on strongly at the finish and at the price could be an each way bet at the odds if the going was at least good and it might be even better with good to firm going. 

RAISE A BILLION—14/1 also looks like it will be better over further and should be staying on at the finish but its form this year has been quite patchy so I'm not convinced it can repeat its best ever time recorded at Hamilton but if it did repeat its best time it could be placed and its a big enough price to do each way. 

GOADBY—14/1 has been on my radar a few times this season but its not had its preferred going recently with it being soft ground nearly everywhere, this one can do a front-running role and if getting to the front could be hard to pass but that's only if the going isn't on the soft side because as has been the case a recently it fades in the closing stages of the race. But even then at the price it ould have to be an each way bet at the price. 

SUMMARY I think I'm hoping for a miracle in looking for good or firmer ground for this race meeting, if the going suits my work then I would be having a decent each way bet on Goadby at the price but as usual if it's on the soft side I won't be betting. If you have been looking at these blogs you know I only say bet on good or better going because that's how I do my speed ratings. Although the weather hasn't been kind for me lately some of my top rated horses have still won or run well, just because I say I'm not betting it doesn't mean any of them cant win it just means I don't know if it can win the particular race on the softer ground. I've never been able to devise my on method of determining how big or small the going allowance should be, I spent many hours working on what I now believe is the impossible which is why I now only bet on good or firmer going and the all-weather but I do know the official way the going allowance is determined is flawed, so add this to the already inaccurate way they the figures are worked out it makes it all a joke.

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