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Friday, 14 October 2016

2:00 Ascot Winning Racing Tips (15th Oct) Shalaa to Shine for Gosden

Shalaaa, John Gosden,
What a cracking Group 1 race I just hope the going is at least good or firmer, I've only got 2 marked down as front runners, Signs Of Blessings a French raider who might not want the going to be on the firm side of things but looks a likely danger being one of those front runners, the other front runner is the 3-year-old Shalaa who has won its last 6 races and 2 of those victories have been in this class of race and all goings seem to be okay for it, I've then got 2 joint top rated horses in Brando and Growl who can both either be held up or track the leaders but the former is from a time recorded last year and may not be quite up to winning a Group 1 race having won a Group 3 and a 2nd place in a Group 2 race, Growl 80/1 looks like a very good handicapper sprinter and this might also be beyond it but that price is bigger than I expected, if conditions, in this case class, are against a top rated horse its rating isn't really relevant. Of the 4 mentioned I can't see beyond SHALAA 13/2 as a betting medium but even then I would suggest going in with lower stakes.
Shalaa 13/2 Unp
Division 1 of this race with 9 runners and 5 of them have been known to lead, if I use turf form to rate these horses my top rated is SHYPEN 11/2 who won last time out over this distance at Yarmouth about a month ago, of its 4 all-weather races, none of which have been at this course, its won one and been 2nd and 3rd once also so cannot be discounted, using all weather times then Kindly who is a front running type is 2nd best and the 3-year-old TIGSERIN 7/1 is top rated and this one usually likes to race prominently and isn't badly drawn in stall3 to get a good early position from which to attack late on.

WINNER!!!!!!!!!!!!! Shypen 11/2 1st
Tigserin 7/1 7th
This 2nd division is a very poor race and very little to work with as I've only got 1 horse that's got a time from this course and distance and only 2 with recorded times on grass, Rural Celebration is 1 with a time on grass and is automatically 2nd top on my list but I've got LUCKY DI 8/1 as top rated on grass plus its the only 1 with a time from here so has to be the selection but with so many unknowns in the race, especially with 7 of the 9 runners being 3-year-olds, any stakes have to be kept on the low side.

Lucky Di 11/1 6th

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