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Monday, 7 November 2016

6:15 Newcastle Winning Racing Tips (8th Nov) HARDWICK HALL HOTEL HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95)

A complex class 3 race with 14 runners, 5 that have been known to lead before and also 4 that I have negatives about and would be looking to lay if the prices are low enough. JAYWALKER is best in according to times recorded at this course and distance but that is a very limited amount of data concerning just 3 horses but isn't in my top 6 using turf times but it is 1 of the aforementioned known front runners which it did when winning last time out here and merits this rise in class and will be a live contender if getting to the front, STEELRIVER comes out best on times recorded at Wolverhampton with the same surface and it is a fairly fast time so must have a decent chance here and is drawn in the stall next door to the possible leader but it does only come out 6th best, 6lbs behind the top rating on turf times who is Another Wise Kid who has then only recorded slow times on this surface at Wolverhampton, it comes out top but only 1 pound ahead of ZANETTO who is to be ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice which would move it to top spot but has never run on this surface and Handsome Dude who is also making its debut on this surface and a further pound ahead of Harwood Volante another possible pace setter but this one is also tackling this surface for the 1st time but does have a 5lb claiming apprentice riding which would move it into 2nd place... 

SUMMARY: As I said a complex race but if JAYWALKER 6/1 gets the lead it must have a good chance of a repeat win but this is a step up in class so if it does falter STEELRIVER 25/1 must come into the equation so worth a small each way bet at the price, its very tight using turf times, so I'm going with ZANETTO 20/1 who hasn't run on this surface before but if taking to it must have some degree of a chance and once again worth an each way bet but with a few unanswered questions stakes will be kept low. 

6:45 Newcastle - Division II - Once again I've got 4 different top rated horses but just 2 that are known to lead and there is 1 horse on both lists, using times at this course and distance Windforpower comes out top rated, if I now switch to times from grass the top spot is Groundworker and both of them can either be held up or track the leaders, then using times on this surface but at Wolverhampton Pancake Day starts as 3rd top rated but is being ridden by a 3lb claiming apprentice which moves it to top spot just ahead of SIR GEOFFREY 14/1 but this one is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice which moves it back to top spot again and the latter is the one i think will try to lead all the way, as long as the apprentice doesn't go mad and set off too fast it could lead all the way and she has ridden 4 winners from 17 rides on the stables older horses. 

7:15 Newcastle - Division II - This division looks nearly as tricky as the other 2 races, of the 13 runners there's 4 that have been known to lead before and I always prefer a selection to be at least up with the pace if not leading the race. Most of these have no recorded times from the turf and the 2, Frank The Barber and Tinsill, that have figures only have times just 2lb above my minimum mark. Whipphound comes out 2nd best on times from Wolverhampton with the top spot going to Frank The Barber, then if I only use times recorded at this course and distance Life Of Fame starts off as my 2nd top rated but is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice which moves it to top spot dislodging Frank The Barber from top spot. As you can see FRANK THE BARBER 5/1 is in the top 2 on all 3 lists of times and is a possible front runner and I do expect this one to try to lead all the way and the only one that might catch it is Life Of Fame but the apprentice has had 19 rides with just 1 victory for the stable but the horse is only a 3 year old so could improve but i'll stick with the proven as usual.

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