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Monday, 30 January 2017

3:05 Southwell Racing Tips (30th Jan) BETWAY HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70)

CROSSE FIRE will need to be held up to get this trip but there doesn't look to be too much early pace and is my 3rd top rated so could have place claims but not much value at 11/2

IT MUST BE FAITH hasn't any surface form and its best was on good to firm on grass so this surface may not suit it but not sure if it should be a lay or not but 9/2 is poor either way
COLOURBEARER usually likes to track the pace setters but its best time only makes it my 6th top rated so this may not be its race and 15/2 is plenty short enough
ELUSIVITY is a hold-up type and despite being my 4th top rated this race may not be run to suit its style and therefore may struggle and 18/1 is about right for it
BIG AMIGO is also a hold up type and starts off in 5th spot but its 3lb claiming jockey moves it to 4th but also may not have the race run to suit it and 100/30 is way too low in my opinion
BOROUGH BOY is the only one in the race that has been known to lead before and may get its own way up front in this race and my 2nd top rated and could try to pinch the race from the front and at 20/1 it could be an each way wager
FUJIN won on Saturday when I tipped it up and if running here would have a decent chance to follow up as its my top rated again here and 5/1 is about the right price
HOLD ON MAGNOLIA may not like the going and therefore a lay and I don't see where they got the price of 6/1
MISU MONEYPENNY may find this distance too far if they go a fast pace and another lay in my opinion and 25/1 is about what I expected
FREDDY WITH A Y may want further to show its best and this race not be run to suit it and another possible lay but not at 25/1 as there's no value.
SUMMARY: A strange race with very little proven early pace which means that BOROUGH BOY 20/1 could try to win this race from the front and the price permits me to go with an each way wager, if FUJIN 5/1 turns out again after Saturdays victory the hint should be taken as its never tried it before and quite a few in this race might not be able to get involved, so I will go with backing both of them to show a profit whichever one does the business.

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