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Wednesday, 11 January 2017

6:15 Kempton Winning Racing Tips (11th Jan) 32RED CONDITIONS STAKES (CLASS 2) (4yo+)

Affirmed, Belmont Stakes, USA,
Only 5 runners so I doubt there will be much value in the race but I'll have to wait for the betting to know for sure, the biggest problem could be who will set the pace, if I had to back 1 to lead it would be Related but this may want further and if it's a slow pace he might get outpaced if it became a 2furlong sprint for home but could be dangerous if allowed to dictate from the front and it is 2nd top rated on course and distance times, Golden Amber comes out 2nd top on Chelmsford times but SPRING LOADED 7/4 is top on both course and distance times and Chelmsford times and it can be held up or track the leaders which I hope it does here and covers any moves and follow up its win last time out, PRETEND 4/5 is the highest rating here on official figures and this is a drop in class so it looks like being a 2 horse race but there's no value in backing then both so maybe it's best to watch and enjoy the race.

PRETEND 11/10 1ST WINNER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Spring Loaded 7/4 3rd
6:45 Kempton - (Division I)
A class 6 race but it looks quite competitive, of the 10 runners I have got 2 possibly 3 marked down as possible lays as they have big negatives against their names here, theres 2 known that could set the early pace, Major Valentine, hes my 5th top rated on course times and usually stall 10 would be a no no but with only 1 other possible pace setter it could get into contention especially with Adam Kirby riding plus Triple Dream my joint 2nd top rated doesnt have to lead although capable of doing so and stall 7 isnt ideal if theres scrimmaging for positions early on but if getting to the front ought to be very hard to catch, Diamond Charlie has place claims if getting a clear run from stall 3 which wont be guaranteed in this race, bottomweighted Ocean Legend has place claims on some form but stall 5 just might be a coffin box in the early battle for position but is my 3rd top rated, top spot is NEW RICH 6/1 who is usually held up for a late run and as long as theres a fast enough early pace so the eladers are tiring as hes finishing then it could get there for the victory but I will also be backing TRIPLE DREAM 6/1 just in case it does get an easy lead and once again I cant narrow it down to 1 with any confidence.

New Rich 8/1 2nd
Triple Dream 12/1 3rd
7:15 Kempton - (Division II)
This division is weaker in some aspects but there is also a couple of possible hidden dangers which means stakes will have to be kept low, I think I can narrow it down to 3 that could have a chance if I exclude the 2 possible dangers, COMPTON PRINCE 12/1 comes out 3rd best on course and distance times but is top rated using Lingfield times and 2nd top on Chelmsford times so can't be dismissed from my calculations, RIGOLLETO 100/30 is 2nd best on course times and is the only “known” front runner in the race and its drawn stall 1 so with an uncontested lead it could maybe be capable of leading all the way if others falter, the bottom weight NASRI 14/1 comes out top on both course and Chelmsford times and has been running lately over a longer trip but must have a chance of getting back to winning ways here but I can't, with any confidence, split these 3 and would have to back all 3 to show a profit whichever one does its job but the betting will once again be the final deciding factor in my final decision. (the betting now says it's a win bet and 2 small each way bets).

COMPTON PRINCE 12/1 1ST + EXACTA £139.70
Nasri 14/1 2nd
Rigoletto 100/30 4th