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Tuesday, 28 February 2017

2:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (28th February) Sprint Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+)

MOSSGO — comes out 2nd best on my figures but it seems mainly to be a horse that can make the frame whether it's a fast or slow run race and its best time were recorded chasing a fast pace, so could make the frame but I'm doubtful it can win this race and 11/4 is poor value.
ANNIE SALTS — doesnt make my top 4 and for a possible front runner stall 9 isn't ideal and it needs others to falter for it to even make the frame but I doubt quite good enough to win and I'm surprised it's as low as 5/1.
PICANSORT — can be held up or track the leaders and from stall 3 it could possibly get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish, I think the horse is fit enough to reproduce its best but don't quite make my top 4 so could struggle to win this race but could possibly make the frame but 5/1 isn't quite big enough for that bet.
POWERFUL WIND — has only produced poor form on latest runs on the all-weather tracks and going back as far as 2013 its best time wouldn't put it in my top 6 and another that seems to produce its best times when getting towed along in a fast run race but I don't think it can win here.
DESERT STRIKE — is versatile with its running style which includes leading and from stall 2 that could well be its tactics here and being my 4th top rated it could easily do enough to hang on for a place and 6/1 would show a profit if getting placed.
PHAROH JAKE — can either be held up or track the early pace setters and has 2 possible front runners in the stalls surrounding its own stall 8 but if it can get a tow along it could stay on strongly at the finish and is my top rated.
HOT STUFF — won its maiden last time out on its 14th start, it was a poor race and the time was very slow but it could have given the horse some confidence but I doubt it is good enough to win this race on that performance.
FRANGARY — is 0-8 on the all-weather tracks but hasn't run here at Lingfield before and its time on this surface at Chelmsford was slow which doesn't bode well for its chances in this race.
RED FLUTE — has been drawn widest of all in stall 10 but it is my 3rd top rated horse and has shown its fitness for this year and if getting a run it could still make the frame but at 28/1 it looks as though they think it won't overcome the poor draw.
RUBHEIRA — is a 16 run maiden, in fact, its never even made the frame in a race so far and in this race, it looks virtually impossible that will change.

SUMMARY: With 6 of the 10 runners having been known to lead it could be a battle to get control at the front and the favoured rails position but it might be my 4th top rated Desert Strike from stall 2 that gets to the front 1st and it could then stay there long enough to make the frame but would need others to falter to hang on for the win, Red Flute my 3rd top rated could struggle from stall 10, Mossgo in 2nd top spot hasn't won since August 2015 and its times are usually recorded when it either goes off too fast in front or when it gets towed along in a fast run race, top of my list is PHAROH JAKE 6/1 who is coming out of stall 8 and therefore may need some degree of luck but if getting the breaks it could be staying on the strongest of them all, the 7lb claiming apprentice taking the ride has won twice for the stable so I'm hoping he's good enough to get things right but it isn't a race where I would be betting too heavily.

Pharoh Jake 8/1 4th

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