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Monday, 6 March 2017

2:00 Southwell Racing Tips (7th March) Sprint Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+)

Eric Winner
Not a great class 5 race and 5 of the 11 runners have been known to lead, the trainer John Butler has got a good 21% win rate at this course and has 3 runners in the race but none of them has been in good form lately but I'm a little worried one of them might spring back to form as all of them have been known to lead before and have stalls 1, 3 and 7 so they could try to control the race from the front even though on this straight course the draw isn't as important as in a 6 furlong race but as usual I will stick with the proven, my 2nd top rated is Powerful Wind and it's coming out of stall 2 and Ben Curtis has got a 31% win rate when riding for this stable, so the question is will it get a clear run early in the race, it's doubtful in some ways but if it does get to the front it ought to be quite hard to catch but I have got CROSSE FIRE 11/4 as my top rated and 1 always like it when the topweight is my top rated and isn't a front runner so if it can get a clear run from stall 6 it could be the one to catch the leaders especially if they go off too fast at the start of the race and the make-up of the race makes me think they might play into the hands of the selection.

Crosse Fire 11/4 3rd
4:30 Southwell --
There's 13 runners in this class 6 race with 3 that have been known to lead before but this time it will be best to get to the rails for an advantage going round the bend but the 3 front runners are drawn in stalls 7, 8 and 9 and one of my 2 selections is the horse coming out of the 8 box, BOROUGH BOY 11/2 who starts off as my top-rated has been known to lead but can be a versatile sort when it comes to racing tactics so it could easily follow the other 2 across to the rails and sit handily in about 3rd or 4th place from which to attack late on and Spowarticus from stall 9 is my 4th top rated, in 3rd spot is Monsieur Jimmy who has looked as though a longer trip would suit it even better so ought to be staying on at the finish but will need some luck from stall 13 to either not get into any bother or be taken wide rounding the bend, FORTINBRASS 11/2 starts of as my 2nd top rated but is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice who does look good for his claim and this one likes to race prominently and from stall 6 could let the front runners across just in front of him and then get a good position from which to launch its attempt, I will be going with small bets on both to show a profit whichever one does the job.

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