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Thursday, 9 March 2017

3:55 Southwell Racing Tips (9th March) HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85)

This looks a decent class 4 race with 10 runners and 4 possible pace setters, Escalating is my 4th top rated and done that time this year so is in form, Saved My Bacon is drawn in stall 4 and my 3rd top rated so could do enough to make the frame, Lady Nayef is my 2nd top rated and this one doesn't usually front run but does like to race prominently and is coming out of stall 2 and the stable does well here with a 21% win rate and the jockey does even better winning 31% of the time for this stable so it looks as though connections are hoping for a big run but I've got NEW ROAD SIDE 15/2 who is housed in stall 3 and another possible front-runner and that's what it likes to do when trying to win and if it does get to the front it could be hard to catch but if not getting its own way up front the leaders might use up too much energy and fade which would play into the hands of LADY NAYEF 13/2 and I will have to go with backing them both to cover the angles and show a profit whichever one does the job.

New Road Side 15/2 2nd
Lady Nayef 13/2 5th
5:05 Southwell -
Some of these class 6 races are quite poor and this one is well down the pecking order and of the 11 runners there's 3 that have been known to lead before and only 3 with recordable times, Oscars Journey is my 3rd top rated but finds the 6th furlong stretches its stamina in a fast run race and is a few spots behind my 2nd top rated Spowarticus and this one looks the most likely pace setter and it would then be hard to catch especially if it gets to set its own pace without being hassled for the lead but my top rated is ARIZONA SNOW 25/1 and if returning to its best of last year it has a few spots in hand of the field but any stakes will be kept on the low side but the price is so big I will have to be having a small each-way wager.

Arizona Snow 25/1 6th
6:45 Newcastle -
This is a class 3 race with 12 runners but with 4 or 5 horses that could be hidden dangers and stakes will be kept low and if there's no value in the price it may be a race I will leave alone but I can only find 2 horses that have been known to lead and on times from this course and distance I've got JAYWALKER 16/1 as my top rated with a few spots in hand and it's one of the possible leaders and if getting an easy lead it could be hard to catch, it hasn't run since the middle of November but has won after a break before, the trainer has had 2 winners from 19 entrants at this course but the jockey booking looks significant having ridden 6 of the stables older horses and winning on 2 of them so it looks like they are expecting a bold show from their horse in this race but as I said there are too many unknowns to be betting very heavily but I will be having a small each-way wager.

Jaywalker 16/1 1st (Rule 4)

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