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Wednesday, 15 March 2017

5:45 Chelmsford Racing (16th March) Maiden Auction Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 5) (3yo)

Racing tips
Not a race to get too involved in but I'm hoping there's some value in the race, of the 9 runners theres 3 that have led before, Beau Mistral is 2nd best on course times and Commanche top rated but the jockey riding the latter is 0-5 for the stable but the stable has got a 22% win rate, SPACE WAR 4/1 is top rated using Lingfield times and the trainer has a 32% win ratio and the jockey is 3-6 for the stable which hopefully means they expect a big run from it, my 2nd top rated using Kempton times is Athassel who has won its last 2 races but both were slow run affairs and that might not happen here especially when the top rated Major Valentine ** is a front-runner and the best drawn on them in stall 2 so if getting to the front could be hard to catch, I will be backing both to show a profit whichever one wins but stakes are always kept low in amateur races.

Space War 4/1 3rd
Major Valentine is now a non-runner so I will be going with just 1 small bet on SPACE WAR 4/1.
6:15 Chelmsford - (Division 1)
Of the 10 runners half have been known to lead before and the pace will be key to the race but I'm struggling to narrow it down to a single selection, Hurricane Alert is a possible front runner and 3rd best on Kempton times but the trainer and jockey have poor statistics so not for me but it could make the frame, Zebelini is 2nd best using the same times from Kempton who is another possible front runner and stall 3 isnt a bad draw but top rated is FABULOUS FLYER 100/30 who has a few spots in hand but this hasnt run before over this course and distance but if taking to it could easily win and is in good form lately, Mighty Zip is 2nd top on course and distance times but may prefer further and is a few pounds behind my top rated YISTY 16/1 who is a possible frot runner and stall 2 may give it the chance to take control of the race from the front on the rails but I will be backing them both, a win bet at 100/30 and an each way bet at 16/1 to show a profit whichever one of the two does the business.

Yisty 25/1 8th
Fabulous Flyer 9/2 3rd
6:45 Chelmsford - (Division 2)
Of the 10 runners in this division there's 6 this time that has led before and once again there's conflicting data from the 3 courses with this surface, the topweight Swendab comes out best on times recorded at Kempton and it is a fast time, Roys Legacy another front-running type comes out 2nd best at both Lingfield and this course so could make the frame but may find one or 2 too good for it, Rojina is top rated using Lingfield times but has only recorded a slow time at this course and distance, then Bubbly Bailey is only 3rd best on Lingfield times but has quite a few spots in hand on times from this course and its a front runner and could from stall 4 gain control of the rails and then prove hard to catch, I've got to go with something and it looks like a small bet on BUBBLY BAILEY 7/1 hoping it can lead all the way, the way this race is made-up.

Bubbly Bailey 12/1 2nd

7:15 Chelmsford -
Saving the best for last this class 3 race looks a lovely race, there's 5 of the 11 runners that have been known to lead before and it looks most likely to be won from the front, Silvanus is my 4th top rated from stall 3 is ok for a front runner but Brother Tiger could gain control of the rails from stall 1 if its fit enough on its 1st run of the year and looking back it usually needs its 1st run for fitness, if they do go too fast up front and all fall into a heap Dynamo Walt could be the one to prosper if it can get a clear run from stall 7 with fast starters either side of it and my top rated BOSHAM 16/1 from stall 6 ought to be able to get either to the front or at least a very prominent position, its had 3 runs this year its 1st was over course and distance when it looked like it needed the run and then its last 2 runs have been over 6 furlongs and this drop back down to the minimum distance looks a good move and has a good chance here to get back to winning ways and I'm a bit surprised at the available price and have to go each way at the odds.

Bosham 16/1 8th

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