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Friday, 14 April 2017

2:25 Musselburgh Racing Tip (15th April) Borderlescott Sprint Trophy Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (3yo+)

racing tips
Only 7 runners but 3 of them have been known to lead before and they are the highest numbers but even more important is that the trainer Paul Midgley has 3 runners in the race and they are my top 3 ratings and none of them is among the pace setters but he does have a 16% win rate here, the jockey on Desert Law is 0-2 for the stable but is my 2nd top rated one point ahead of Monsieur Joe in 3rd top spot but his jockey has a 15% win rate for the stable the same as the jockey on the top rated Line Of Reason who is only one point ahead of the 2nd top rated, so 3 horses from the same trainer and only 3lb separates them, if pushed I would go with LINE OF REASON 7/2 who has been running in Meydan this winter and when it did its best time it was slowly away and could have maybe recorded a faster time if away on terms with the rest of the field.

Line Of Reason 7/2 3rd
2:35 Kempton -
Only 6 runners this time it's a joke really but maybe shows there is too much racing, 3 of them have been known to lead before Robot Boy's trainer has had 14 runners here without a winner, Watchable has the best trainer and jockey stats but hasn't won since 2014, Southern Belle has only run in a slow time at Lingfield so not for me, A Momentofmadness has stall 1 which could help its cause and has done a fast time on grass so can't be dismissed, Just That Lord is 2nd best but the trainer is 0-8 here, so maybe the early fast pace could play into the hands of JUST US TWO 8/1 but any stakes would be kept low.

just Us Two 12/1 6th
3:10 Kempton -
This is a hard race to analyse properly but it will give some pointers if not a final conclusion, Eltezam is dropped in class from the Group races it ran in during 2015, it missed 2016 and gelded but its one run this year at Wolverhampton was very disappointing so I would wait to see if it retains anything like its old form, Basil Berry is 3rd top on course times and the jockey had a 26% win rate so looks like a positive for its chances, Stellarta's trainer only has a 5% win rate here and the jockey is 0-3 so looks a negative move, CAPTAIN DION 8/1 has got stall 1 and its a front runner but hasn't run here before but has done a fast time at Chelmsford on this surface and must be a hidden danger, Pearl Spectre hasn't any course and distance form and may find this trip a bit short but has done slightly above times on this surface elsewhere, ELJADDAAF 15/2 is my 2nd top rated at this course and the trainer has a 12% win rate and the jockey 18% win rate for this stable so could be thereabouts, Fast Track's trainer is 0-14 at the course, so I will be going with 2 small bets.

Captain Dion 8/1 4th
Eljaddaaf 15/2 10th

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