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Monday, 29 May 2017

4:40 Windsor Racing Tips (29th May) amous Monday Night Racing Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+)

horse racing
MONTEVERDI may need this run for fitness, also looks as though a longer trip might help and some cut in the ground so not for me here despite being the topweight.
COOL BAHAMIAN has also looked like a longer trip would suit but it does stay on strongly at this distance and is my joint 4th top rated.
SIR BILLY WRIGHT has only produced slow times over this course and distance and it is a much better horse over a shorter trip.
KING OF SPIN can be either held up or track the leaders but its best time doesn't put it in my top 6 so may struggle here.
COMPAS SCOOBIE recorded its best time at Yarmouth this year but it was only fast enough to make it my joint 4th best.
FIELD OF VISION looks the most likely of these to set the early pace but may not be ideally drawn in stall 2, its final times don't put it in my top 6 so not sure what its capable of it getting an easy lead.
RIO RONALDO is a horse that likes good to firm ground and its best time was recorded over this course and distance its also my 2nd top rated so could easily at least make the frame.
BAHAMIAN DOLLAR has only produced slow times on good and good to firm ground but it has done a decent time at Newcastle on the all-weather
MAJOR PUSEY has only done slow times at this distance as it usually proves too far for it but comes be dangerous if there's, not a decent early pace.
WILEY POST is usually held up for a late run and it is my 3rd top rated but it does find this trip stretches its stamina if there's a fast early pace.
SUMOU is my 6th top rated and usually, tracks the leaders but I'm not really sure what is exactly its best distance.
DANECASE ran on Friday and did a very fast time in an apprentices race and if that time wasn't a fluke then must have every chance of following up here.
SUMMARY: I'm hoping there's a decent early pace to eliminate those that struggle with stamina over 6 furlongs which includes my 3rd top rated, if it's really fast going then Rio Ronaldo has every chance of going close if not winning but it all hinges on the time that DANECASE 11/2 recorded at Goodwood, it seemed very fast for its class and could be a fluke time, the race was an apprentices race so it's not penalised here and on that showing looks a lot better than its official rating of 74 and if my figures are right ought to win easily, but I will be having at least a saving bet on Rio Ronaldo 7/1 if the going is fast.

NR - Danecase
This is a poor class 6 claiming race with 8 runners and no known front runner so that always makes it hard to get a picture of how the race might unfold but I have only got 2 with times fast enough over this course and distance to register on my list and both from the same stable so maybe David O'Meara is trying to win this race, if I go by my speed figures PEARL ACCLAIM 3/1 should win quite easily but the apprentice jockey has only got a 6% win ratio whilst the jockey riding Major Crispies 11/2 has got a 14% win rate, so I'm not sure which one will be the trier but I'm going with my figures and backing Pearl Acclaim but I might also have a saving bet on his other horse just in case the selections a non-trier but either way my stakes will be kept on the low side.

Pearl Acclaim 4/1 2nd

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