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Thursday, 13 July 2017

3:10 Carlisle Racing Tips (13th July) Handicap

Horse Racing Tips
3:10 Carlisle - Class 4 – 5 furlongs – 8 runners
Not a great race for the class and only 2 have recorded times, Olivia Fallow can track the pace or be held up and there's a couple of possible pace setters for it to aim at but I've got HENLEY 13/2 as my top rated and this one usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the jockey booking looks a positive as he's got a 19% win rate for the stable.

Henley NR CARLISLE 3.45 Class 4 – 6 furlongs – 7 runners
Storm Cry 3/1 my 3rd top has 16% win rates for both the stable and the jockey so has to be considered Hamidans Girl 15/2 2nd top and this 3year old's trainer has a 15% win rated and is a hold up type Sea Of Green 16/1 another hold up type with single figure win stats for both trainer and jockey.
SUMMARY: I think the race should concern these 3 but it's all fairly tightly handicapped and I'm not confidently able to split them so I will look to back all 3 to show a profit whichever one wins but my stakes will be kept low and I wouldn't blame anyone who left this race well alone.

CARLISLE 4.20 Class 6 – 6 furlongs – 17 runners
Gaelic Wizard is my 5th top rated but the only known front runner so could be dangerous if allowed to set its own pace and then kick from the front and could make the frame. Searanger and Caeser The Gaeser are my joint 3rd top rated and both are hold up types Picks Pinta is 2nd top and ought to be staying on at the finish as it often looks as though a longer trip might help its cause. SALVATORE FURY 16/1 is top rated and the trainer has a 15% win ratio here and the 5lb claimer could swing things their way but with so many runners and plenty of inconsistent horses running my stakes will be kept low and only then if there's some value in the price which there is and I will go with a small each-way investment.
Salvatore Fury 16/1 10th
DONCASTER 3.55 Class 5 – 5 furlongs – 11 runners
Landing Night my 3rd best can be held up or track the leaders Pearl Noir is well weighted in 2nd spot and is a versatile sort and could make the frame RED ALERT 7/1 is in top spot and the one who I would think is the most likely leader and if getting to the front from stall 1 which isn't ideal it could prove hard to catch.

Red Alert NR
NEWMARKET 4.35 Class 2 – 5 furlongs – 16 runners
Foxy Forever is 4th top and 1 of 4 possible pace setters Tomily is 3rd top and usually races prominently and this 3-year-old could still improve further Shamshon is a hold up type and being my 2nd top rated it ought to be staying on well at the finish OH SO SASSY 25/1 nearly won for me 1st time out this year when beaten in a 3 way photo and it's been given a decent chance in this race and should have the fast pace it likes to aim at and the trainer has a 24% win rate here so it looks promising and at the price I have to back it each way.

Uh So Sassy 25/1 6th EPSOM 8.50 Class 4 – 6 furlongs – 10 runners
Highland Acclaim 3rd top rated and can be prominent or held up and the jockey has a 23% win rate for this stable so could make the frame Farleight Mac is 2nd top and both the trainer and jockey have a 15% win ratio so looks a good combination here and another that looks expected to run well and a possible pacesetter. ASHPAN SAM 3/1 is my top rated and another possible front runner and it ought to be a good battle between my top 2 ratings and the trainer and jockey both have 1-4 records and could defy its 6lb penalty in this race coming out again before the official handicapper can re-assess it properly.

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