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Saturday, 16 September 2017

1:30 Chester Racing Tips (16th September)

Pro Gambler
I doubt the going will be anything but soft but just in case it is I'm going to post the 2 races I've analysed but if it is soft please ignore my ramblings. As we all know it's hard to back anything drawn too high at this course and this race looks a strange affair as most of those I think might have a good chance have got poor draws and the tactics of horses drawn low suddenly change but I've got both horses are drawn in stall 1 and 2 as front-running types so the rest of the field may have to come wide of this pair but neither of them is in my top 4 ratings so I assume at least 1 horse, maybe even more, will catch them but which ones its hard to say. My top rated is SILVANUS 20/1 but stall 10 may prevent it from winning but I have got it a few spots ahead of the rest and this 12-year-old is still capable of winning races like it showed at Musselburgh 4 runs ago and could be worth a small each way bet, I've got joint 2nd top rated with Bondi Beach Boy who has been known to lead but stall 12 might not be ideal plus this its 1st run of the year so may need this run for fitness but the other 2nd top rated is DESERT ACE 7/2 who is drawn in stall 3 and can be held up or track the leaders and it might be able to get onto the rails just behind the leaders and then have a good position from which to attack late on, my stakes will be kept low and I will go with backing them both.

Desert Ace 9/2 2nd
NR: Silvanus
Not a great class 6 race but there are 2 possible known pacesetters in the field of 12 but neither of them, Knockamany Bends, who likes some cut in the going, and Red Forever, who has a poor strike rate with 1 win in 41 races on grass, have recorded times fast enough to register on my graphs. Thornaby Princess is my 3rd best but either wants a longer trip or a fast early pace and then rely on the front runners fading badly but I doubt they will go off fast enough for its stamina to kick in enough for it to win the race but it could make the frame, See Vermont is my 2nd top rated and the trainer has a good 20% win ratio here but this one needs good to firm going to show its best and I doubt it will be that fast which leaves me with my top-rated horse SALVATORE FURY 14/1 who did its best time last year at Hamilton when it was held up for a late run so this race might be run to suit its style and has run a time this year just 5lbs lower than its best which would still keep it in top spot, then to help its cause they are using a good 5lb claiming apprentice, my stakes won't be at full strength but I'm going with an each way bet at the price.

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