Tuesday, 28 November 2017

1:10 Southwell Racing Tips (28th November)

Southwell Racecourse
ZENOVIA could be a danger if it takes to this surface and this 3year old is usually help up for a late run and could make the frame but 3/1 looks poor value.
KOMMANDER KIRKUP another that could be a possible danger but its drawn quite high for a horse that likes to race prominently.
MAD ROSE has a slowish time on a different all-weather surface and poor form so not for me here.
KAABER won last time out over this course and distance but the time was slow but has a decent time from Wolverhampton but it's not my idea of the winner.
FORTINBRASS is my top-rated but this trip does stretch its stamina if it's a fast early pace but there's not many front-runners in this race, 11/1 makes it an each-way shot.
LLEWELLYN is in stall 1 and the only known front-runner has got a good trainer and jockey stats so ought to well here and another each-way price 14/1.
BOROUGH BOY is my 2nd top rated and from stall 2 should be able to track the leader and be competitive here so 10/1 could be an each-way prospect.
OH SO DANDY looks a better prospect over a shorter distance but this race may not stretch it but I'm not sure it can win.
BINGO GEORGE likes to track the pace but stall 12 isn't ideal and I doubt it can be competitive here.
TASAABOQ is held on a recent form by the horse above and this doesn't look to be its favoured surface.
COISTE BODHAR recorded a slow time in 2015 and nothing better since and it may be better for a shorter trip.
YPRES is a hold-up type but may not show its best on this surface.
SIR HARRY COLLINS is an 8 run maiden and needs to improve its slow time from Lingfield to win this race.
KENSINGTON PALACE may need a longer trip to show its worth and is a 10 run maiden.
SUMMARY: I will be going with 3 each way selections in this race to cover all the angles, LLEWELLYN 14/1 is my 3rd top rated and the only known front runner plus its gold the prime draw in stall 1,BOROUGH BOY 10/1 is 2nd top and can track the leader from stall 2 and be thereabouts at the finish but ive got FORTINBRASS 11/1 as top rated so its always capable of winning and has to be backed but I will go with backing Llewellyn with the higher stake and then do the other 2 to lesser stakes but to hopefully show an overall profit.

Borough Boy 12/1 2nd
Llewellyn 20/1 3rd
Fortinbrass 11/1 5th