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Tuesday, 21 November 2017

1:40 Lingfield Racing Tips (21st November)

HIGHLAND ACCLAIM comes out top using turf times and has a reasonable figure at this course and distance, tracks the leaders and could win or be placed so 20/1 looks a big price.
KODILINE could be a bit of a hidden danger as it ran on well at 5 furlongs at Kempton and has decent trainer/jockey stats so could be competitive here 6/1.
SUPER JULIUS has done a decent time on good to firm going but it looks as though its a much better prospect over a shorter distance 11/1.
SIR OTTOMAN the trainer is 3-15 here and a decent time recorded at Kempton so could be a candidate to at least make the frame and 12/1 looks a fair price.
SHAMSHAYA trainer has a 16% win rate here and the jockey 33% win rate makes it look like a candidate but I'm not sure if this surface will suit it 9/1 is about right.
GORGEOUS NOORA good trainer stats and decent jockey as well then add on a good time on Tapeta it looks a positive but only a slow time at Chelmsford makes me unsure but it could be a pacesetter but 11/4 is poor value.
MEDICI BANCHIERE has a good jockey booking but the trainer is 0-23 with his 3yo’s here and this distance might be too far but no value at 12/1 to lay it.
SHORT WORK has 16% win rate for both trainer and jockey but I'm not sure this surface will suit it but is a possible pacesetter but 7/2 looks way too short in my opinion.
DIAMOND LADY has got 19% win rates for both trainer and jockey and 2nd best time over this course and distance, usually tracks the leaders so a possible contender and 16/1 is tempting for an each-way bet.
ROSE BERRY has a good time from Kempton but I'm not sure it stays the distance if a fast early pace and a 0-6 jockey booking don't look a positive move so 9/1looks a bit short.
JUST AN IDEA is top rated on course times and usually races prominently so must have at least a chance of making the frame or better and at 33/1 could be very tempting as an each-way bet.
SUMMARY: A hard race to analyse with 7 of the 11 runners being 3year olds, theres 3 that have been known to lead before but are drawn stall 6 or higher, ive got most of the horses having some degree of a chance depending which speed figures I use and the stats of the trainers and jockeys, so it might be a race best left alone as a betting prospect and go with 2 horses that I dont think can win so I will look to lay both Super Julius and Medici Banchiere on the exchanges to profit from the race.

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