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Friday, 1 December 2017

2:45 Southwell Horse Racing Tips (1st December)

Horse Racing Tips SOUTHWELL 2.45
African Blessing starts off as my joint top rated but its 7lb claiming apprentice moves its top spot on its own, the trainer's stats are 3/22 but its the 1st time this good apprentice has ridden for the stable and it looks a positive move.
Dodgy Bob hasn't any course form and likes to track the leaders but stall 11 in this race isn't ideal and it's not won from 6 previous attempts on the all-weather tracks but has won on grass with some cut in the going so it could like this surface but the jockey is 1-27 for the stable which is off-putting. (Lay 11/1)
Vroom starts off as 3rd best but its apprentice jockey who has a 0-3 record for this stable moves it into 2nd spot, it has been known to lead before and in this race may be ok even coming out of stall 9 as there's not many other fast starters in the race.(ew 14/1)
Appleberry this one might like a longer trip but both the trainer 18% and jockey 15% do well here it has also not been in good form this year which is negative as is its slow times. (lay 9/1)
Viva Verglas starts off as joint top rated and has one of the top jockeys riding who has a 14% win rate for this stable and the stable has won 15% of its races here so it could go well and have at least place claims.(Place 13/2)
First Excel is 4th best on my figures and I can see this one making the frame if others falter as the trainer has a 15% win ratio here although the jockeys 1-18 doesn't inspire me to its chances of actually winning.(place 7/2)
Pearl Acclaim hasn't any course form and I don't think this surface will suit it, with 15 runs on the all-weather before without a win also puts me off its chances as does the trainers 7% win rate at this course.(LAY 6/1)
Malaysian Boleh hasn't any form on this surface and I think it will either not like the underfoot conditions or it wants a shorter trip, maybe a bit of both but it's not for me here.(LAY 25/1)
Meandmyshadow is a front-running sort and from stall 2 I can see this one dictating the pace, it hasn't run here before but if taking to the surface it could try to lead all the way but the trainers 1-33 record put me off its chances of winning.(place 11/1)
Declamation hasn't been in good form this year and I think its either wants a longer trip but if I'm wrong it could be a danger if springing back to form on its debut on this surface and the trainer has a good 19% win ratio here.
Willbeme is 0-8 on the all-weather tracks and I doubt this surface suits it, the jockey is 1-13 for this stable but the trainer is 0-27 at this course which makes me think this won't be its day here.(LAY 16/1)
SUMMARY: This looks a competitive race for its class and there's a couple of potentially hidden dangers in the field, I think the early pace will come from either Meandmyshadow or Vroom or maybe both and the latter is my 2nd or 3rd top rated, Viva Verglas is a hold up type and my original joint top rated and could easily make the frame with a clear run but I'm siding with my top-rated AFRICAN BLESSING 11/2 who has got topweight but a 7lb claiming apprentice riding which could swing things in its favour.

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African Blessing 5/1 4th

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