SOUTHWELL 2.45African Blessing starts off as my joint top rated but its 7lb claiming apprentice moves its top spot on its own, the trainer's stats are 3/22 but its the 1st time this good apprentice has ridden for the stable and it looks a positive move.
Dodgy Bob hasn't any course form and likes to track the leaders but stall 11 in this race isn't ideal and it's not won from 6 previous attempts on the all-weather tracks but has won on grass with some cut in the going so it could like this surface but the jockey is 1-27 for the stable which is off-putting. (Lay 11/1)
Vroom starts off as 3rd best but its apprentice jockey who has a 0-3 record for this stable moves it into 2nd spot, it has been known to lead before and in this race may be ok even coming out of stall 9 as there's not many other fast starters in the race.(ew 14/1)
Appleberry this one might like a longer trip but both the trainer 18% and jockey 15% do well here it has also not been in good form this year which is negative as is its slow times. (lay 9/1)
Viva Verglas starts off as joint top rated and has one of the top jockeys riding who has a 14% win rate for this stable and the stable has won 15% of its races here so it could go well and have at least place claims.(Place 13/2)
First Excel is 4th best on my figures and I can see this one making the frame if others falter as the trainer has a 15% win ratio here although the jockeys 1-18 doesn't inspire me to its chances of actually winning.(place 7/2)
Pearl Acclaim hasn't any course form and I don't think this surface will suit it, with 15 runs on the all-weather before without a win also puts me off its chances as does the trainers 7% win rate at this course.(LAY 6/1)
Malaysian Boleh hasn't any form on this surface and I think it will either not like the underfoot conditions or it wants a shorter trip, maybe a bit of both but it's not for me here.(LAY 25/1)
Meandmyshadow is a front-running sort and from stall 2 I can see this one dictating the pace, it hasn't run here before but if taking to the surface it could try to lead all the way but the trainers 1-33 record put me off its chances of winning.(place 11/1)
Declamation hasn't been in good form this year and I think its either wants a longer trip but if I'm wrong it could be a danger if springing back to form on its debut on this surface and the trainer has a good 19% win ratio here.
Willbeme is 0-8 on the all-weather tracks and I doubt this surface suits it, the jockey is 1-13 for this stable but the trainer is 0-27 at this course which makes me think this won't be its day here.(LAY 16/1)
SUMMARY: This looks a competitive race for its class and there's a couple of potentially hidden dangers in the field, I think the early pace will come from either Meandmyshadow or Vroom or maybe both and the latter is my 2nd or 3rd top rated, Viva Verglas is a hold up type and my original joint top rated and could easily make the frame with a clear run but I'm siding with my top-rated AFRICAN BLESSING 11/2 who has got topweight but a 7lb claiming apprentice riding which could swing things in its favour.
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African Blessing 5/1 4th
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