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Thursday, 23 November 2017

4:05 Newcastle Racing Tips (23rd November)

Horse Racing Tips
Green Door has got good trainer and jockey stats and its dropped in class I think because it's not been running well lately and I'm not sure if this surface will suit but I cant discard it from my list and it could go well here.
Equimou comes out top using turf times but hasn't run on this Tapeta surface before, the jockey is 1-2 for this stable on turf so it could be a danger here.
Bowson Fred comes out 2nd top on c/d times, 3rd top on turf times also a possible front-runner with reasonable trainer/jockey stats.
Atletico looks as though a longer trip might suit it better than here and the jockey booking, 0-3 doesn't look a deal changer.
Old Fashioned hasn't much English form and is another who may need further to show its best so maybe this won't be its day.
Memories Galore is joint 4th top rated on course times so could easily make the frame if others falter as its a possible pacesetter.
Rich Again not in my top 4 at this c/d but has done ok this year and will be held up for a strong finish.
Fast Track would move up to 2nd when taking off the jockeys 7lb claim but she's 0-3 for the stable so I'm not sure its a positive booking but could go well.
Dynamo Walt will need to improve timewise to win here but it usually tracks the pacesetters so could go well if others fail.
Landing Night is top rated on c/d times, it's also 2nd best-using turf times so could easily make the frame but the jockey booking 0-6 doesn't inspire me for its chances of winning but never say never.
Ziggy Lee is having its first run of the year so i expect it will need the run to gain fitness and its best from 2016 would only put it in 4th spot.
Hilary J is joint 4th top rated and the 3rd possible pacemaker in the race so could make the frame but the win may allude it.
Jameerah has only a slow time c/d and looks as though a longer trip would suit it better and a layin my eyes if of any value to do so.
Rosina looks as though it may struggle in this class but is capable of doing a fast time but the jockey is 0-9 which isn't inspiring.
SUMMARY: This is a competitive looking race as it should be for a class 3 affair but I'm going with backing a selection I think can get away smartly here and could possibly lead all the way and looks the value (I'm not talking about price) call but my stakes on BOWSON FRED 6/1 won't be at full strength with such a strong line-up.

Bowson Fred 6/1 2nd CHELMSFORD 8.00
Not a great looking class 6 claiming race and im sticking with it because I can only see 1 pace setter and its my top rated so if CAPTAIN LARS 7/1 gets to lead here it could be very hard to catch, the trainer has a 15% win rate here with the older horses but the jockey only has a 6% win rate for the stable but the trainer does have an 18% win ratio with his runners in claiming races so I will be going with a wager but maybe not a full strength one.

Captain Lars 10/1 1st

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