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Friday, 29 December 2017

2:25 Southwell Racing Tips (29th December)

Southwell Racing Tips
FOOLAAD looks as though a longer trip will suit it better and I would be looking to lay it especially at 9/2 as that's too short in my opinion.
CAPTAIN LARS has got good trainer and jockey stats but I'm still not sure if its fast enough to win this dash so a place maybe its limit but 3/1 isn't an each-way price.
PIAZON is my 2nd top rated but its 7lb claiming jockey is making his debut for the stable which has a good 18% win rate here and could make the frame but 11/2 is a bit short for that.
BROTHER TIGER is a possible pacesetter but it's only produced slow times recently and I cant see why that should change here so a lay in my eyes at 10/1.
MIDNIGHT MACCHIATO hasn't any form at this surface and distance but I'm of the opinion it may need more distance to show its worth but it does have good trainer/jockey stats and 14/1 is a decent price if you want to back it each way.
CROSSE FIRE is my top rated and usually likes to track the leaders and ought to be able to make the frame at least and 7/1 is just about big enough to back each way.
PENNY DREADFUL stablemate of the horse above, a possible pacesetter but it does look better on a different surface and outside my top 3, its a 9/1 shot.
RED STRIPES looks as though a longer trip is needed, the jockey is 0-2 for this stable who are 0-11 here, it's my 3rd top rated so could stay on to make the frame but 9/2 is a bit low.
SUMMARY: I quite expect Penny Dreadful to be among the early front-runners I think to help the cause of its stablemate CROSSE FIRE 7/1 who likes to stay on in a fast run race, there's a few in the race where it has good trainer and or jockey stats so they could be dangerous but I will go with a small wager on the selection and hope things fall right for it.

Cross Fire 7/1 4th
This doesnt look the best of races but its not going to be great being class 6 and a claiming race and until I got to the bottom of the field did I find anything of interest, the 3-year-old SCOTCH MYST 7/2 has done a reasonable time over this course and distance and it looks as though they might be trying to get the horse out of this good stable which has used claimers before to get rid of horses and they have won 22% of the claimers they have an entrantin, so im hoping thats a good pointer but I think the combination of the trainer, the horses official handicap mark and it still being a 3 year old will mean the price won't be great but I can always hope. In fact, I'm surprised to see 7/2 but doubt it will be this price at the off.

Scotch Myst 7/2 3rd

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