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Thursday, 28 December 2017

3:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (28th December)

racing tips
ART NOUVELLE hasn't any form in England and it can be held up or track the leaders, in my opinion, it could be a dangerous opponent but I've not got enough to work with to be completely sure of what to expect and at 11/2 the bookies look unsure as well.
WHIRL ME ROUND looks as though it prefers a shorter distance and the trainer is 1-18 here which doesn't inspire confidence and I would look to lay it but 18/1 isn't value.
HELIS this one also doesn't have any form in England but this one looks as though its going to need a longer trip to show its worth, add on the trainers 0-14 here and that's enough for me to want to lay this one as well but again 18/1 is no value.
DANECASE isn't in my top 3 ratings and the trainer has a poor 1-22 win rate at Lingfield so I doubt this one can win this race but it could possibly make the frame if others don't run to their best and 10/1 is just about value to lay or back each way.
VARSOVIAN is my top rated on both course and distance times and on Kempton times, the trainer has a 15% win rate with his older horses at this course and they are sticking with the 3lb claiming jockey who won on it last time out.
ZIPEDEEDODAH hasn't any fast times at this distance as it looks a better horse over a shorter trip so not for me here and 8/1 is a lay price.
JUAN HORSEPOWER comes from a very powerful stable with a good 18% win rate here and the jockey win 14% of the time for this stable but its best time is lacking, it could run well but I'm doubtful it can win but I cant back or lay this horse at 9/1.
VERY HONEST is the only known front-runner in the field and my joint 2nd top rated so if leading it could prove very hard to catch and could even lead all the way so cannot be discounted easily and worth a bet at 6/1.
HAMISH MCGONAGAIN is the other joint 2nd top rated, the trainer has a decent 15% win rate here and the jockey is 1-10, from stall 2 it ought to be able to get a good position on the fence from which to stay on at the finish but not value at 7/2.
SUMMARY: I've got a couple to lay and maybe 3 but the race could revolve around VERY HONEST 6/1 who looks likely to set the pace here and with an easy lead could possibly lead all the way for victory, the other joint 2nd top rated will need things to go its way a 100% to catch the leader but VARSOVIAN 3/1 is my top rated and if getting a clear run could catch the leader for victory but I will back both to cover the angles.

Varsovian 5/1 4th

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