Thursday, 1 February 2018

1:30 Southwell Racing Tips (1st February)

Southwell Racing News
SOUTHWELL 1.30
A poor race and I've narrowed it down to 4 of the 10, on this years form ARCHIE STEVENS 8/1 is my top rated and only drops to 2nd looking at others horses form from 2016, its a possible pace setter on this straight 5 furlong course, SOMETHING LUCKY 6/4 is 2nd top rated on this years form and joint 3rd using older times and its a hold up type but I'm not very interested at that sort of price, Archimedes comes out joint 3rd using a 2016 time but still means it needs to improve to win this (that's if others run to their best which is never guaranteed) also using a 2016 time Coiste Bodhar comes out top rated but has had several chances to reach the same heights so may just lack again here. I've marked 2 down as my selections and i think i will split my stakes between the 2 and probably have smaller stakes on the other 2 just in case they spring back to form but its not a race to bet too heavily in.

Archie Stevens 8/1 7th
Something Lucky 2/1 3rd
KEMPTON 7.00
VERY HONEST 3rd top but has 3lb claimer riding, front runner in stall 1, bet 11/2 PRETTY BUBBLES joint top rated poor jockey stat 0-7, may prefer further REEDANJAS trainer 1-55 may also need shorter trip so lay 11/2 PULSATING joint top rated very good trainer/jockey stats so a bet 3/1 DEAR BRUIN no course form, slow times g/f turf so lay 20/1 LITTLE MISS KODI no course form but may need further so lay 7/2 MERCERS poor trainer stat 2-50, jockey 2-2, maybe too far so lay 11/2 PORTO FERRO may prefer a slower surface and a lay 33/1
SUMMARY: A race with not much depth, I've marked 5 of the 8 runners as possible lays, Pretty Bubbles is joint top but stall 7 isn't going to help its cause in the make-up of this race, PULSATING 3/1 is in stall 2 and ought to be able to get a good position on the rail just behind the leaders from which to attack, with a trainers win rate of 31% and the jockeys 21 it looks like they are expecting a big run but I've got VERY HONEST 11/2 as my 3rd top rated but its 3lb claiming apprentice, who has a 24% win rate for this stable, puts it very close to the top and it looks likely to be the make maker in this race and if getting to the front and kicking off the bend it could prove hard to catch, i am going with backing 2 horses just in case there's others that contest the lead and then they all fade nearing the finish and my other selection can pick them up.

Pulsating 3/1 1st
Very Honest 11/2 2nd Ex £4.10

No comments: