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Tuesday, 23 January 2018

1:55 Southwell Racing Tips (23rd January)

Southwell racecourse
Of the 13 runners in this race there's no known natural front running type so I'm already wary with the strength of my bets, then add on the fact I'm struggling to narrow it down to less than 4 selections it's a race and if there's no value in backing all 4 to show a profit then I will leave the race alone, Scotch Myst 11/2 is my 4th top rated but has the best trainer/jockey stats so cannot be ignored, Sir Geoffrey 12/1 is 3rd top and this horse is usually better over a shorter trip but if it's a slow pace it could save enough to get involved and could then make the frame or even better, but I'm doubtful it can actually win because someone will I think set a decent pace, Fortinbrass 15/2 is my 2nd top rated using a time from 2016 but it didn't reach the same level last year but I'm not sure whether it's capable of repeating its best but I wouldn't bet against it going well here, my top rated is BLISTERING DANCER 14/1 and that's using the time it ran last time out when finishing 2nd and a repeat would be good enough to win this easily, it was its first run on the surface and I'm hoping it wasn't a fluke time, I will go with backing my top rated each way and then smaller bets on the other 3 to show a profit whichever one wins.

Blistering Dancer 16/1 9th
This is a lovely class 2 handicap and it is maybe best left alone, watched and savoured, but I’ll try and analyse it the best I can,I think the bottom 4 weights in the race may be a bit out of their depth in this class although Foolaad has done a very decent time but in this ones case its the same old story of class versus speed and class usually wins unless its an improving sort moving up the ranks, the top 4 in the handicap all have decent strike rates in terms of the trainer, Poyle Vinnie is my 3rd top rated and Compas Scoobie has a jockey booked who is 4-12 for the stable, its never ran here before and it could be dangerous if taking to the surface but I'm looking at MIDNIGHT MALIBU 9/2 who is in stall 1 so ought to encounter a trouble free run here especially as its a front running sort and if leading may be hard to catch but my stakes wont be at full strength.

Midnight Malibu 9/2 6th

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