Tuesday, 2 January 2018

5:10 Newcastle Racing Tips (2nd January)

Newcastle racing tips
Maybe not a race to bet in very heavily, Caspian Prince is dropped in class but a time from 2016 would put in with every chance but has conflicting trainer/jockey stats..Final Venture has only slow times over c/d and looks as though further would suit it but has a fast turf time at this distance that would make it another contender, Atletico is just outside my top 3, it may prefer further but has very good trainer/jockey stats, Blue De Vega has good trainer/jockey stats but I think it may need further or a different surface, Doctor Sardonicus hasnt got the best of times and could possibly lead here which could make it dangerous and ok trainer + jockey stats, Gracious John is near the top using a 2016 time over c/d and is also top on turf times so must have a chance, Intisaab may need further and is probably the only one I can discount.

SUMMARY: I will go with a small wager on GRACIOUS JOHN 2/1 who comes out top rated on turf times and c/d times if I use a 2016 race and has won it last 2 races in this class add on the jockeys 24% win rate for this stable and it all points to them hoping for another win but it is a very competitive race and my stakes will be kept smallish then the price is a bit skinny.

Gracious John 3/1 7th
It doesn't look to be a good day for sprints, this race has 9 runners, I've got 3 marked down as lays, Brother Tiger, Mehdi and Johnny Cavagin, I also had Tommy G but it has a decent jockey booking but I think it needs further to show its best, also Economic Crisis would be in contention using turf times but hasn't got good trainer/jockey stats although this will be its 1st run at this distance on this surface so I'm doubtful. That leaves me with the top 4 in the handicap as being the most likely place to find the winner and I have the topweight Shamshon marked down as joint top rated using turf times plus its done a good time at this distance and surface at Wolverhampton, ive got just 1lb difference between Rosina, Fast Track and Rich Again, all 3 have at least one positive looking at their trainer and or jockey stats, if pushed i will go with a small wager on RICH AGAIN 10/1 who is the only true hold up type in this race and being a straight course its stall 6 draw wont make any difference and this race could be run to suit its style but i will look to see the betting to see if I can dutch the race with the top 4 and make a profit.

Rich Again 10/1 3rd

Eric gave 1, 2, 3 here

Ex £29.70
Trifecta £147.60