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Thursday, 22 February 2018

3:45 Southwell Racing Tips (22nd February)

Southwell Racecourse
FOOLAAD 11/8 has won its last 3 races over this course and distance and is my top rated again, its usually tracks the pace and its got stall 3 next door to where i think the pacemaker is berthed so could get a good tow into the race, the price isn't great but i cannot back anything else even looking for value so added to a multiple bet might be best.
Harry Hurricane could be a possible danger but the trainers 0-9 here puts me off and i think its out to gain fitness for an early tilt when back on turf and a lay in my eyes.
Poyle Vinnie is 3rd top rated but needs to improve a few spots to win this unless others falter but i think it will run a fair race but maybe not enough to win.
Erissmus Maximus has only produced slowish times here but the trainer has a 16% win rate here and the jockey is 4-10 for this stable but i think its another that's out to gain fitness for a turf campaign and i would lay if the price is low.
Ascot Days hasn't any c/d form and I don't think this surface suits it and maybe a longer distance is better but the trainer has a 47% win rate here and the jockey is 22% wins for the stable but i will stick with facts and leave it alone or lay it if of value.
Captain Lars is 2nd top rated on my figures and is versatile with what racing tactics it deploys and it ought to be near the front at the finish if running to its best.
Archimedes has relatively slow times, the jockey is 0-5 for this stable but it is a front running type and the most likely pace setter in the race but I'm doubtful it can stay there for the duration and i would look to lay especially if it shortened in running.

Foolaad 11/8 1st
I'm not always a fan of apprentice races and i wont be betting very heavily in this one although there is a couple i will look to lay if they are of any value, I'm going to mention my top 4 in this race, Roy's Legacy is a possible pace setter and there's only 2 others in the race but it will need others to falter to win but there's no guarantees in this race so it could be dangerous,Strictly Carter has a time from 2016 that would see it in the mix, Pospsilca led last time out and from stall 2 will i think attempt to lead again here but the trainer is 0-20 at this course and the jockey is 1-26 which sure doesn't inspire any confidence, my selection is MIGHTY ZIP 5/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish so a fast early pace may play into its hands and from stall 7 it could follow Roy's Legacy across to the rails and then prove the stronger.

Mighty Zip 11/1 8th
Only 6 runners but a tricky looking race where I've got conflicting form, speed and trainer/jockey stats with all of them, I've got Very Honest and Pulsating as my top 2 on times and both of them have decent stats but The Lacemaker who i thought might need this run for fitness and also a longer trip has a 17% winning trainer here and the jockey is a cracking 4-10 when riding for this stable which makes me think I've missed something, the betting will be my final decider but i may well leave this race alone. Well 15/8 favourite and 9/4 2nd favourite isn't anything less than i expected and at the odds i will probably go with small stake trebles on my 3 races.

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