Eric's Weekly Round Up: Musharrif 8/1



Thursday, 8 March 2018

3:35 Southwell Racing Tips (8th March)

Free Horse Racing Tips
SOUTHWELL 3.35
Quick Look usually held up but may prefer further. Arzak 3rd top either held up or tracks the leaders Brother Tiger 2nd top front runner type Vimy Ridge no course form hold up or track the pace Jack The Truth joint 3rd top good trainer/jockey stats tracks the pace Something Lucky in good form usually held up maybe not this class Archimedes 2nd front running type but times a little slow Crosse Fire top using 2017 time only 3rd on 2018 times tracks the pace
SUMMARY: In today's blog for this race I've put the tactics usually deployed by each horse and when I do my analysis I work using those tactics and if something different happens like a selection being slowly away or something else deciding to lead then all my work has been for nothing and it makes me look a right plonker (just like the 8.45 race last night) and I wont profit from the race, it would be ideal for me if I knew what tactics each horse was going to deploy and if they were trying to win or not.

1st, 2nd & 3rd given in write-up. Tricast £71.43
I can't narrow the race down very much Brother Tiger could lead all the way if repeating a 2017 time, Crosse Fire is out the official handicap but another with a time from 2017 that would win this race, Arzak has got good trainer/jockey stats which could point to connections expecting a good run here, the final candidate and the top rated on this years times is JACK THE TRUTH 3/1 and will be my main bet but I will place covering bets on the other 3 mentioned in the summary.
SOUTHWELL 4.05
For my purposes this is one of the worst races I've come across for a long time, I've got negatives against every single runner in the race and only Whispering Soul has a recorded speed figure but that was at Wolverhampton last year and then only 3 pounds higher than my minimum time, also looks like this trip stretches its stamina if there's a fast early pace, so i think i will leave this race alone.
NEWCASTLE 8.15
This actually is a nice looking race apart from the fact that there's no known front running types in the race, this is a problem because it can go in one of two ways, either nobody wants to set a fast early pace so its run at a dawdle and a 2 furlong dash or because they think nobody else in the race is a front running type that they decide to change their usual tactics and try to front run here and several of them have the same idea, either way it would make it very hard to analyse to a conclusion. I think any of these four, Heavens Quest 10/3, Born To Finish 5/1, Oriental Lilly 3/1 or Glorious Politics 11/4 can win this race but I wont be betting in the race but maybe a lay on one of the 3 I don't think can win will be the way forward.