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Thursday, 30 August 2018

4:55 Musselburgh Racing Tips (30th August)

Musselburgh racing tips
MUSSELBURGH 4.55 (7.6) 

Now the evening racing has finished and there's only 1 race for me to analyse today I thought I would show you just how much work goes into each race trying to find the winners, I hope some of you have also looked on the Eric Winner Facebook page where I've been putting up a lay system that I've devised and its made just over 1300 points profit in 5 weeks, so if you haven't looked you've been missing out, so below I will do a full analysis of each horse and the form and trainer stats I also use and my thoughts on what I could do concerning each of them. 

ONE BOY (9/4)

Won last time out so has to be considered as its in good form the trainer has a 13% win ratio here and he’s using a 7lb claiming apprentice to offset the 6lb penalty the horse has to carry, its only the 2nd time the jockey has ridden for him but its only 4th on my speed figures, I'm not sure I could lay this horse but I certainly wouldn't back it to win but maybe each way if the price permitted. 


Is my top rated on a time recorded at Thirsk which is a similar type of course, the trainer has a good 17% win ratio here and the jockeys stats are 15% win ratio for this stable, its last win was 12 races ago but this will be its 1st race at a lower official handicap rating than for that win on ideal conditions of 5 furlongs and g/f going so has a good chance here to get back to winning ways. 


Hasn't much form in England to work with and looking at its Irish form the only thing I can deduce is that 5 furlongs might be on the short side for this horse, the trainers 0-2 and jockeys 1-5 records don't point me in either direction to back or lay so I’ll do neither. 


Is my 3rd top rated and the trainer has a 14% win rate and the jockey 11%, so I'm thinking this one could make the frame but would rely on others faltering to actually win the race so the price will be important to what I do if anything. 


Is a possible pacesetter in this race and in the make-up of this race stall 8 might not be too much of a hindrance, the trainers 12% stat is ok but the jockey has a good 20% win rate when riding this stables older horses which makes me think they expect a big run here but its only 5th top on my figures so it might struggle to win but could make the frame and if backed it might be a horse I would lay the win part on the exchanges. 

KIBAAR (7/2)

Is my 2nd top rated and this ones time also came from Thirsk, the trainer has a decent 12% win stat but the jockeys is a lowly 4% win ratio which puts me off a little and this race might not be run to suit this one's style but it could run on into a place, so an each way bet at best but not at that price. 


Is on a long losing spell of 25 runs, its best time from 2017 wouldn't see it in the frame especially as it races as though a longer trip would suit it better, the jockeys win record for this stable is 2-39 so I would look to lay this horse. 


Hasn't shown much time-wise for quite a while now and if the going is g/f it isn't ideal for this one, it's being trained by a newcomer who is looking for her 1st win as a trainer but doubts very very much that will happen here so one to lay. 


The trainer has 9% win ratio here but the jockey is 0-4 for the stable, its recent form has been quite a way off its best and to show its best it may need a slower surface and a longer distance or maybe even both but 1 I would look to lay. 


Hasn't shown much recently and its best time from 2016 wouldn't see it make the frame here so another to lay. 

SUMMARY: You can now see my plans for each horse and with being able to bet win or each way and lay horses it gives me plenty of ways to make money from a race,(as long as I've got my homework right) my usual method is to lay 1 or more of the runners to win more than the stake I place on my win bet, so if anything else wins, as long as its not one/s I've laid, I still make a profit. I guess its like dutching a race but in reverse but I will be backing DUNDUNAH 7/1 as my selection.

Dundunah 7/1 7th

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