Only 7 runners in a class 2 race is such a shame theres not more runners but it is what it is and I’ll just have to put up with it, the bottom 4 in this handicap will have every chance if the going isnt good to firm (a stick reading here of 8.2 is required before I will bet) but on fast ground they may struggle, Goodnight Girl is 3rd top and the only known front runner in the race and this 3-year-old could improve if allowed an easy uncontested lead, Clear Water can be held up or track the leaders and should be staying on at the finish but the top rated and therefore the selection for this race has to be the topweight POET'S VANITY 5/1 who likes to track the leader and its drawn right beside it so should get a good tow into the race, the trainer has a 16% win rate here and the jockey is 18% so pointers to a good run and this is a drop in class compared to what it was competing in last year so must have every chance to get back to winning ways.
Poet's Vanity 5/1 1st + FC £14.90 + TC £62.50
CARLISLE 6.00 (7.0)
The top 3 in the weights are the 3 that like to lead and Lucky Beggar comes out 4th top rated, the 3-year-old Fard is 3rd best and it should be staying on at the finish if there's a fast early pace and may prefer a longer trip to show its best, Extrasolar comes out 2nd best and can sit just behind the leaders from stall 4 waiting to pounce close home but in this race I've got ROY'S DREAM 9/2 as my top rated and this front-runner has got stall 2, any bias seems to favour those drawn low, so if leading it could prove hard to catch and the same apprentice who won on it last time out rides again.
Roy's Dream 5/1 6th
CHELMSFORD 8.45
This is a strange race, yes its only class 6 but the make-up of the race doesn't help me analyse it properly, normally horses like the topweight here I could discard from my thoughts of it being the winner as it struggles at 6 furlongs in a properly run race but here there's no known pacesetters so I'm not sure how fast they will go from the off, the other side of the same argument is will they go too slow for those who like to stay on strongly at the finish like BLESSED TO EMPRESS 4/1 who is my top rated and won last time out so my stakes certainly won't be at full power.
Blessed To Impress 6/1 4th
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