Saturday, 20 October 2018

6:15 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (20th October)

Horse racing tips WOLVERHAMPTON 6.15 

CURIOUS FOX is dropped in class to run here and hasn't run on this surface+distance recently but going back to its best from 2016 I think it will still struggle here, so not sure what to expect. 

ROY'S DREAM is being ridden by a 7lb claimer which puts it in joint top position at this c/d but that was in 2017 and poorly drawn here in stall 9 and a 14/1 shot.

MISTY SPIRIT a possible front-runner from stall 3 but it hasn't run on this surface before but its best time from Chelmsford would make it top rated here but I'm not sure this surface will suit it and the betting, 22/1, seems to agree with me.

BROKEN WINGS is a 10 run maiden who recorded a fast time at this distance on good to firm going on grass but hasn't run on this surface before could be a hidden danger, the price 14/1 makes it look as though its unlikely to win but I think its a bit overpriced. 

HAYLAH is an 11 run maiden and its best Lingfield time at this distance is relatively slow which makes me think this trip is too far for it at this time of its career and I certainly wouldn't back it to win this race at 3/1. 

MARSEILLE has only produced slow times at this distance as it always looks as though this distance is beyond it if there's a strong early pace and at 11/1 the bookies agree.

CHARLESTON BELLE has a time over c/d this year which makes it joint 4th best and should be staying on at the finish of the race but maybe too late and 6/1 is maybe a touch short. 

MASQUERADE BLING is my top rated on this years c/d times it can be held up or track the leaders and stays on strongly at the finish and its 4/1 2nd favourite. 

TURANGA LEELA hasn't any recent surface/distance form and its best from 2017 would only make it my joint 4th top rated but it could try to front run here from stall 2 and could be an each way bet at 16/1. 

INGLEBY ARCH comes out 2nd best on 2018 course and distance times and can be held up or track the leaders but stall 7 isn't ideal in the make-up of this race and 7/1 is a true reflection of its chances. 

CELERITY is a 52 run maiden, hasn't produced a recorded time on my figures and looks better over the minimum trip and as expected its a 66/1 shot. 

SUMMARY: There's a few lines of data here to analyse and leaves me with Curious Fox and Broken Wings who could both be hidden dangers, if Misty Spirit can repeat its best Chelmsford time here it would top rated and is well housed in stall 3 for a front-runner but I'm not sure this surface will suit it but never say never. If the 7lb claimer riding Roys Dream is worth their claim it could become very competitive here but the draw is a little offputting, I will go with my top rated over course and distance in the shape of MASQUERADE BLING 4/1 who can track the leaders or be held up, the trainer has an 18% win rate at this course and the jockey is 2-6 for this stable so it looks as though the connections are expecting a big run here.

Masquerade Bling 5/1 5th