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Friday, 30 November 2018

1:30 Southwell Racing Tips (30th November)

horse racing today

A nice race for class 6 where I can discard the bottom 4 in the handicap and number 2 leaving the other 3 as possible winners, FIRST EXCEL 2/1 is 3rd top but has both good trainer, 15%, and jockey 29%, winning stats but the price looks as though the bookies also think so with such a small price, Eponina is my 2nd top rated but is still a maiden on the all-weather after 8 runs which is a little off-putting, the topweight KOMMANDER KIRKUP 5/1 is top rated and its time was recorded this year, I will back the latter as my main bet but will have a saving bet on First Excel. 

Kommander Kirkup 5/1 1st + Ex £15.50 + TRI £55.90

NEWCASTLE 8.15 Div1 

The 3-year-old Viking Way is the only known pacesetter in the race but needs to improve to win but could be dangerous if allowed to set its own pace, Yorkshire Pudding is in my top 3 but has relatively low trainer/jockey stats and hasn't won in 15 attempts on the all-weather tracks, another contender is Breathoffreshair but hasn't been in the same level of form in 9 runs this year, my selection will be SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE 11/4 who hasn't run at this c/d this year but the jockey booking looks a positive move, but my stakes won't be at full strength and the price is a bit shorter than I had hoped. 

Spirit Of Zebedee 9/2 3rd

NEWCASTLE 8.45 Div2 

Only 2 known pacesetters in this division but neither look capable of winning the race, my 3rd top rated is SANTAFIORA 5/1 but it's using a Wolverhampton time but the jockey booked has a 21% win rate on the stables older horses so they may be expecting a big run here, French is 2nd top rated but again using a Wolverhampton time and its not won in 12 previous all-weather runs which puts me off a little, top-rated I KROY 6/1 who’s the best time can here last year but hasn't run here recently so I'm hoping coming back here will bounce it back to form and the apprentice jockeys claim could help its cause and for an apprentice having stall 14 might make things a bit less complicated for an inexperienced jockey.

Kroy 6/1 2nd  Santafiora 5/1 6th

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