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Wednesday, 14 November 2018

7:00 Kempton Racing Tips (14th Kempton)

7:00 KEMPTON -

ELJADDAAF - is usually running on at the finish but hasn't been in the same form this year as 2017 but even then that would only see it make the frame. 

MERLIN - is making its AW debut here, its usually a front-running sort and its best turf time would make it top rated here, plus its dropped in class and this is the trainers favoured AW course having a 28% win rate with his older horses here and the jockey has a 22% win rate on the stables older horses.

HELVETIAN - this 3-year-old is my top-rated horse using course and distance times and it was recorded this year, the trainer does just okay here while the booked jockey has a 19% win rate for the stable which leads to them expecting a big run here. 

ZAIN HANA - another 3 year old but its best time wouldnt see it even make the frame and its turf times havnt been great either but it could possibly still have some improvement to come on the AW courses. 

WATCHABLE _ is 0-6 on AW tracks and its best turf time sees it just outside the frame, it has been known to lead before but maybe it won't be able to do so here and has looked better on the AW at the minimum distance than the 6 furlongs here.

EXCELLENT GEORGE - can be held up or track the leaders but on what its shown so far I cannot see it picking up the pacesetters in this race and poorly drawn in the make-up of this race and is the poor value at 5/1. 

DOCUMENTING - hasn't run on this surface before and on its turf form it looks as though a longer distance would suit it better and not for me in this race. 

CHOOKIE DUNEDIN - a 3-year-old who hasn't run on the AW before but the trainer does have a 17% win rate here but I'm thinking it either wants further or a different surface but I'm not 100% sure whether I would lay it or not.

BUSBY - is well weighted here and could possibly make the frame but this 3-year-old will need to improve a few spots to win the race. 

SUMMARY: A very nice looking class 3 race with 9 runners and 3 that have been known to lead before, there's a few that could possibly make the frame but I have narrowed it down to 2 selections here, firstly I have to side with the top rated over course and distance so HELVETIAN 7/1 has to be one of the selections but its not one I think will lead but could pick up the pieces if they go too fast in the early stages or if MERLIN 15/2 doesn't reproduce its turf form on its AW debut but it is a front-running type on turf and has the plum draw here in stall 1 and the trainer/jockey stats say it should go well here.

Merlin 15/2 6th
Helvetian 7/1 9th