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Thursday, 20 December 2018

2:50 Southwell Racing Tips (20th December)

SOUTHWELL 2.50 

This is a poor race where only 4 of the runners have done a time fast enough to register on my figures, Furni Factors is 3rd top rated but the trainers 0-15 and the jockeys 0-12 put me off this one, DECISION MAKER 11/2 is 2nd top and the trainer has a 15% win rate here and the jockey 1-5 for the stable but it hasn't been in much form lately but did maybe hint at a return to form when 4th last time out but is still a maiden after 14 previous runs, the topweight ARCHIMEDES 6/1 is my top-rated but the jockeys 1-17 for the stable is a little off-putting but is top rated so I will go with backing them both but my stakes will be a long way off from full power. 

Decision Maker 6/1 3rd  

SOUTHWELL 3.20 

This 9 runner race looks ok at first glance and the 3 at the bottom of the handicap are all well weighted on their best form but none of them have any trainer/jockey stats that give me any confidence so I think this race is best left alone. 

CHELMSFORD 8.30 

This is one of those races I can split into 2 halves and discount 6 of the runners but the figures are a bit all over the place on my top 6, Busby and Buxted Dream are joint 2nd top on c/d times and the latter does have good trainer/jockey stats so it could go well, top rated on c/d times is LETHAL ANGEL 5/1 a 3 year old who’s trainer has a good strike rate at this course which looks a positive, one of the 2 known front-runners in the race is WALK ON WATER 12/1 who has won its last 2 races and could be hard to catch if getting to the front but those wins were on a different surface at Wolverhampton but if reproducing its best time on this surface it could achieve the hattrick but I will have to back both selections to cover more than one angle. 

Walk On Walter 12/1 2nd 
Lethal Angel 10/1 Unp 

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