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Thursday, 13 December 2018

7:15 Chelmsford Racing Tips (13th December)

Free racing tips

LA FORTUNA comes out 2nd best on my figures despite carrying top weight and should be staying on strongly at the finish 12/1 looks a decent each-way price.

JOEGOGO is in 4th position on my ratings and has been known to lead before but stall 9 may be asking too much of it in this race.

ROSINA would be 3rd best using a 2017 time and it hasn't run over this c/d this year so could have an each way chance if running to its best but 9/2 looks a bit too short. 

CHOOKIE DUNEDIN hasn't any form over this c/d so looking elsewhere it may prefer a longer distance and also a slower surface but it's only a 3 year old so could improve but no value at 9/2. 

TAN has only produced a relatively slow time over this c/d and the way it usually stays on at the end of its races it may be better over a longer distance.

MIDNIGHTLY is the one that's well weighted on my figures and comes out top rated, it is capable of leading so stall 2 could be ideal and 15/2 looks a fair price.

LALANIA a 3-year-old who hasn't run over this c/d before, it didn't stay over 6 furlongs so it could be a danger if being a possible pacesetter getting a clear run from stall 5 but no value at 4/1. 

FETHIYE BOY this one hasn't been in much form lately and despite it having stall 1 I cannot see it being quick enough to lead and may then struggle in this race. 

BECKER the 4th 3-year-old in the race and its sole run over this c/d sees it outside of my top 4 so needs to improve here to win but never say never with a 3-year-old but poor value at 6/1. 

NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM has a time from 2017 that would see it sitting just outside the frame but its form for this year hasn't been anywhere near that level so not for me here. 

MOTHER OF DRAGONS the 5th 3-year-old of the race and its 5th best on my figures and stall 7 doesn't look ideal for a pacesetter in the make-up of this race. 

SUMMARY: With 5 possible pacesetters it should be a true run race, Joegogo, poorly drawn, and Rosina could battle to fill the minor placings but I'm hoping MIDNIGHTLY 15/2 my top rated from stall 2 can get to the lead and gain control on the rails and if doing so ought to prove very hard to pass but if the early pace is too fast and the leaders fade the horse that looks most likely to benefit is the topweight LA FORTUNA 12/1, I will go with my bigger bet on my front running top rated Midnightly and an each way covering bet on my 2nd top rated and strong finishing type La Fortuna.

La Fortuna 14/1 8th 
Midnightly 15/2 9th 

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