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Monday, 14 January 2019

5:15 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (14th January)


VERY HONEST front running type and drawn well in stall 4, its dropped in class and has a fast time from Kempton but hasn't run on this surface before but fancied at 7/2.

TIME TO REASON hasn't any form on this surface or distance and I'm thinking that this surface might not suit it so one I would lay at 9/2. 

OUR MAN IN HAVANA has a time just outside my top five ratings so could possibly make the frame being a front runner coming out of stall 6. 

MOTHER OF DRAGONS has only got slow times at this distance and is 0-15 on the all-weather surfaces plus this distance may be too far for it. 

ORIENTAL RELATION hasn't shown much lately despite sometimes showing a fast early pace but does have A time from 2017 that would put it well clear of this field but not for me here. 

RED INVADER is versatile when it comes to racing tactics but timewise it needs to improve a good few spots.

FILBERT STREET is making its handicap debut here but it looks as though further will suit it better but maybe connections have been hiding its potential. 

ALWAYS AMAZING has only shown slow times over this c/d recently and would need to spring to form unexpectedly to win here. 

CARPET TIME has got a time just 2lb’s below my top rated so could to go well but stall 11 might not help its cause, the trainer has a 15% win rate here so could possibly go well but not much value at 11/2. 

SPIRIT POWER could find this trip too far if the early pace is as fast as I think it might be so not forme in this race. 

INDIAN AFFAIR a possible front runner with a good time from early 2018 but stall 12 isn't ideal and it would need to bounce back to form to be competitive in this race. 

THORNTOUN LADY has a time from 2017 which would put it in 2nd spot on my figures but on recent times it's not for me here.

SANTAFIORA is well weighted and won last time out but the 2nd that day is weighted to reverse the form but the winner perhaps had more to give if pushed and 4/1 2nd favourite. 

SUMMARY: This should be a fast run affair for its class with 4 natural front running sorts and I think I can narrow my list down to 3 or 4 possible winners, 2 front runners and 2 strong finishing types, Indian Affair would need to bounceback to form to win this but has won unexpectedly before so cant be written off completely, VERY HONEST 7/2 is best drawn of the front runners and its dropped in class in this race and if it can repeat its Kempton time on this different surface it could lead all the way, theres very little between Carpet Time and SANTAFIORA 4/1 who could both be trying to stay on at the finish, the former may need to be the luckier being drawn in stall 11 with fast starters berthed either side of it which mau mean the latter gets a clear run from stall 1 and getting the control of the rails just behind the leaders, betting wise I will be backing both selections to cover both angles but not happy being on the first two in the betting I can only hope they drift in the market, but very unlikely.

Santafiora 6/1 1st
Very Honest 7/2 3rd  

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